The new reality became apparent when the US joined Russia and several other exiled authoritarian countries in voting against a UN General Assembly resolution condemning Russia’s aggression against Ukraine on the third anniversary of the full-scale invasion. This was a watershed moment – a date that will live in infamy.
By Carl BILDT
Once upon a time, the United States saw the contest between democracy and authoritarianism as a singularly defining issue. It was this perspective, forged in the wake of World War II, that forged such strong transatlantic ties. For decades, the American-European alliance was not just about security, but about shared ideology and values. That is why the bond has endured for 80 years. But now, thanks to US President Donald Trump, the world of just two months ago already feels like distant history. The very nature of the West is changing at lightning speed before our eyes. So sudden and disorienting is the disruption that many are left clutching at anchor.
The new reality became apparent when the US joined Russia and several other exiled authoritarian countries in voting against a UN General Assembly resolution condemning Russia’s aggression against Ukraine on the third anniversary of the full-scale invasion. This was a watershed moment – a date that will live in infamy. Of course, the implications of the new US foreign policy are profound. No one can deny that the transatlantic security alliance is crumbling. Political leaders may feel obliged to publicly insist that the old mutual defense commitments remain intact; but they are fooling no one – not even themselves. The credibility of the alliance depends on the person in the White House, and that person has no credibility when it comes to transatlantic security matters.
Moreover, we are witnessing a marked departure from the first Trump administration, which at least kept the transatlantic ideological alliance intact. Vice President JD Vance’s speech at the Munich Security Conference showed that these times are different.
His message sent shockwaves through European security, defense, and foreign policy circles. Not only did he dismiss as irrelevant the security issues that have anchored NATO for three-quarters of a century; he completely redrawn the ideological map in such a way as to pit Europe and the US against each other. Suddenly, the US looked not as an ally but as an adversary. The MAGA (“Make America Great Again”) fundamentalists at the core of the Trump administration are engaged in a cultural war aimed at transforming American society. Their project is largely a reactionary counterrevolution against the liberal tendencies they believe have overthrown their country. MAGA wants to return to a more militant, conservative, and semi-isolationist version of American exceptionalism. As such, its defining struggle has nothing to do with the contest between democracy and authoritarianism. These words hardly figure in his stories.
Given the nature of its culture-war project, MAGA sees Europe as an adversary. Vance, who has linked his rhetoric to European far-right extremists, argues that Europe is “in danger [of] engaging in civilizational suicide.” Similarly, Elon Musk, Trump’s main supporter and financial backer, has openly campaigned for far-right parties in Germany and the United Kingdom.
Looking ahead, we will almost certainly see more of this advocacy in places like Poland and Romania (where a court overturned a first-round election result last year, citing Russian interference). Since MAGA ideologues see open, liberal European societies as extensions of their enemies at home, their support for illiberal, antidemocratic forces makes perfect sense. They also have a completely different view of Russia. It is no coincidence that their rhetoric often echoes that of Russian President Vladimir Putin’s regime (sometimes almost verbatim). MAGA and Putin alike espouse aggressive nationalism and hostility to liberal values; they both go on and on about sovereignty and the role of strong leaders and strong nations in shaping the future. Whether in the Kremlin or the White House, so-called globalists are the enemy.
While the Biden administration undoubtedly wanted regime change in Russia – even if this was never expressed as an official policy goal – the Trump administration wants regime change in Europe.
Europe is no longer an ally, but an enemy; and while Russia may not (yet) be a full ally of the US, it is not an adversary either. Putin’s regime has a closer ideological affinity with the current US administration than Europeans ever have. If there is any hope for the transatlantic world, it lies in the fact that the US is not uniform. Contrary to his claims, Trump has no mandate to do what he is doing. But with American society so polarized, its political trajectory is not easy to predict. Even if a partial return to the old order is still possible, the forces driving the reactionary counterrevolution will be around for years to come. The world must take note and shape its policies accordingly. Europeans can hope for the best, but they must prepare for the worst. What once seemed impossible – a rogue America – has become very likely.
(Carl Bildt is a former Prime Minister and Foreign Minister of Sweden)
