After months of uncertainty and diplomatic pressure, Europe’s leaders have seemingly scored a major victory: Donald Trump has been persuaded to continue supporting NATO, at least for now. But what seemed like the end of the crisis is only the beginning of a much more difficult challenge. From questions about financing a massive increase in military spending, to fears of a US troop withdrawal and the risk of a Europe left defenseless in the face of an increasingly aggressive Russia, the EU is at a historic crossroads. Now, the alliance faces a simple but terrifying question: How can it defend itself if America withdraws?
By Politico.eu
It turns out that pledging to spend 5 percent of gross domestic product on defense to appease Donald Trump may have been the easy part for NATO allies. Now, European leaders face a tougher test: selling big increases in defense spending at home and preparing for possible U.S. troop reductions while trying to contain an expansionist Russia. “Money alone will not solve our problems,” German Chancellor Friedrich Merz told reporters after the NATO summit in The Hague on June 24-25.
“The percentage is set, but it is only valid if we manage to turn them into real capacities,” emphasized Norwegian Prime Minister Jonas Gahr Støre.
On Wednesday, NATO allies agreed to a new defense spending target of 5 percent of GDP by 2035, a figure that was initially proposed by the U.S. president. It would consist of 3.5 percent of GDP for purely military spending like weapons and troops, and 1.5 percent for defense-related investments like cyber and mobility. Europeans had hoped that the 5 percent defense spending pledge would strengthen Trump’s sometimes wavering commitment to NATO’s Article 5 mutual defense. After a shaky start, Trump was upbeat at the end of the NATO summit, saying the alliance “is not a sham” and emphasizing how much allies need the U.S. for their defense.
Now that they have secured the alliance’s future, at least for now, EU leaders face tough questions about how to back up their spending promises. Most are heading from The Hague to Brussels for another summit on Thursday, where the key question will be how to boost the bloc’s defense spending and rebuild the military-industrial complex after decades of post-Cold War neglect.
“MAKE THE 5 PER HUNDRED GOAL A REALITY”
Options for increasing defense spending include: raising taxes, cutting public spending (including popular welfare and social services programs), and taking on debt. The European Commission is helping with its new SAFE scheme, a €150 billion program in the form of loans for arms purchases, as well as a smaller €1.5 billion program for the European defense industry. The EU’s next long-term budget is expected to allocate more funds to defense, but it comes into effect in 2027.
“The only European countries with public finances that allow them to aim for this 5 percent target are Germany, Poland, and the Baltic and Nordic countries,” said François Heisbourg, senior advisor for Europe at the International Institute for Strategic Studies. “Everyone knows that France, Belgium, the United Kingdom, Spain and Italy are absolutely not able to maintain this kind of commitment.”
Moreover, the further away from Russia they are, the more difficult it becomes to justify these expenses, as Spain’s last-minute opposition to NATO’s new objective demonstrated.
Another warning of political discontent over rising spending came just before the NATO summit. Former Italian prime minister and anti-establishment leader Giuseppe Conte on Tuesday led a meeting of about 70 left-wing politicians from across Europe, who signed a declaration against the rearmament of the continent. “Achieving the 5 percent target for defense spending will inevitably require deep cuts in welfare, healthcare, education, social services and investment in businesses,” Conte told Politico.
TURN THE OBJECTIVES INTO WEAPONS
Despite the difficulties, the EU will spend much more on defense than before. But that raises another problem: How to spend all that money while ensuring that most of it doesn’t end up with American arms manufacturers? Coordinating purchases and ensuring that countries don’t duplicate or interfere with each other’s plans could be “as difficult” as reaching a 5 percent deal itself, a British official said. This is made even more challenging by the fragmentation of Europe’s defense industries, particularly the land-based arms sector. Previous initiatives to pool resources and jointly invest in pan-European capabilities have failed, with none of the defense successes comparable to the Airbus consortium, founded in 1970.
It is for this reason that Denmark, which will take over the next presidency of the Council of the EU in July, intends to use the 6-month mandate to lead discussions between capitals and identify projects that may be of interest to all member states.
One of the most urgent tasks, according to many European officials and analysts, is for Europe to become more independent of the US in a range of military equipment, such as deep-strike capabilities, but also in “strategic support capabilities” such as air-to-air refueling, tactical transport and satellites. “No European country can build these capabilities on its own,” Czech President Petr Pavel told NATO’s Public Forum on Tuesday. “That is precisely why we need to return to the concept of a ‘framework nation,’ where larger European countries can provide the basic structure of a capability, and many medium-sized and small countries will contribute to fully develop it.”
AMERICAN TROOP LEVELS
Another question that is being raised is: what will happen to US troops in Europe? That, according to the US ambassador to NATO, Matthew Whitaker, will be addressed after the summit. “On the issue of withdrawing US troops, the irony is that the real problems start now,” said Camille Grand, a former senior NATO official. The Pentagon’s policy chief and a known opponent of China, Elbridge Colby, is leading a review of global troop deployments, which is expected to be completed by the end of the summer. The review is likely to include withdrawing some US troops from Europe, according to two defence officials and a person familiar with the process.
The review is considering the possibility of withdrawing the 20,000 troops that the Biden administration deployed to Europe in 2022, following Russia’s full invasion of Ukraine, most of whom were sent to Eastern Europe, according to the same sources.
Frontline countries are still hoping that Washington will not take such a step. “The military assessment of the situation is very clear: the presence of troops in Europe is an essential part of deterrence,” Lithuanian Defense Minister Dovilė Šakalienė told the German newspaper WELT. At the moment, European allies have no information about the conclusions of this review. A NATO diplomat, in whose country American troops are stationed, said that no discussions on the issue have yet taken place. Asked by reporters whether he was aware of a timeline for any reduction in American troops, French President Emmanuel Macron replied: “No.”
“It would be nice to know,” he said ironically.
