In France, the far right is synonymous with Le Pen. In almost every presidential election since 1974, Jean-Marie or his daughter Marine have been the candidates of the nationalist bloc, achieving…
By Eric JOZSEF
In France, the far right is synonymous with Le Pen. In almost every presidential election since 1974, Jean-Marie or his daughter Marine have been the candidates of the nationalist bloc, reaching the second round three times. In fact, they never managed to get through.
In 2027, for the first time, with the conviction of the president of the National Assembly (RN), that surname risks no longer being on the ballot, although it will remain in the hearts of a large part of the French: but, paradoxically, the decision of the Paris court could push for the growth of the far right. For years, Marine Le Pen has denounced the corruption of politicians and the alleged misuse of the European Union, in the pure tradition of the far right, in an existential fight against cosmopolitan elites who exploit people. Yesterday, after years of investigations, the judges established in writing the responsibility of her party for allegedly organizing a fictitious work system in the European Parliament, the one they reviled, (to the detriment of European taxpayers) for 2.9 million euros.
Up to this point, and pending the second-instance decision, the conviction seems to represent a gravestone for Marine Le Pen’s party, which presents itself as the only pure one in the midst of a rotten political system.
Sentenced to five years of ineligibility – effective immediately – the president of the RN can make her start over, shout about a judicial conspiracy against the main opposition exponent, almost triumphantly welcome the extremist support of Victor Orban, Matteo Salvini, Vladimir Putin.
She senses that the wind may be turning. It is worth remembering that in 2013, in the midst of her anti-establishment propaganda frenzy, Marine Le Pen promised to “adopt the lifelong inadmissibility of all those convicted of crimes committed during or after their mandate” as soon as she came to power. And it goes without saying that the law was approved by Parliament in 2016 under pressure from public opinion and the most extremist groups opposed to the unraveling of several political scandals. Since then, and long before Marine Le Pen, several local officials, including the former mayor of Toulon Hubert Falco, have been sentenced to similar sentences.
Instead, it is useful to observe the political fact of history, which means that the president of the RN, three-time candidate for the presidency of the Republic and currently leading in the polls with 37%, finds herself excluded by judicial means from the next race for the Elysée, in 2027. And that, despite everything, she does not bow her head in humility, but does not seek to rise again.
Against a populist vision that considers the vote the only source of legitimacy and the myth of the executive free to act without many restrictions, the moderate left reads in the decision of the Paris court the application of the law equally to all, respect for the rule of law and the importance of countervailing powers, mainly the judiciary, for democracy. But p a popular following. The decision risks, on the contrary, emphasizing in the electorate of the National Assembly (RN) a sense of anger and exclusion for what is defined as “an institutional coup d’état”. There are even those who invite people to take to the streets. It is difficult to say where this chaotic moment could lead.
In the short term, this could translate into a hardening of the RN group in Parliament at a time when the Bayrou government is floundering without a clear majority.
However, it is unlikely to result in a vote of no confidence, because in the event of a snap election Marine Le Pen would not be able to run again and would lose her seat as an MP.
Her ineligibility certainly shuffles the cards for the 2027 Presidential Election: the RN leader was prepared for the challenge and, although reaching 50% in the second round was a long way off, the goal no longer seemed unattainable. Without her, 29-year-old Jordan Bardella remains on the scene, the dolphin who does not yet have much political experience but can follow the wind that blows. Thus, paradoxically, the exclusion of Marine Le Pen could turn out to be an advantage for the French far right. She will have the opportunity to present herself refreshed to the voters without the smell of sulfur and that paternal nostalgia for Pétain and French Algeria that has always accompanied the Le Pen family clan. Definitely stripped of the devil.
