By Radio Free Europe
The general perception is that the end of Russia’s war against Ukraine is not near. But Donald Trump’s victory could spur an effort to reach a peace deal, where Ukraine, Russia, the United States and other countries will discuss possible terms. Trump’s victory in the Nov. 5 presidential election set a deadline, of sorts, because he emphasized several times during the campaign that he would end the war very quickly if elected, without even waiting for his Jan. 20 inauguration. Russian President Vladimir Putin seized on this in his first public statements on the outcome of the US election, saying on November 7 that Trump’s “desire” to “revitalize relations” with Russia and help the end of the war in Ukraine “deserves, at least, attention”.
The statement came amid Putin’s high praise for Trump: He said the president-elect had shown “courage” and “acted like a man” when he was shot in July, and that his impression was that, during his tenure his 2017-2021, Trump was hindered from pursuing his objectives.
Putin’s statements were worded in a way that was clearly intended to appear casual and carefree. But they suggest that the Kremlin will try to use the change of power in the United States and Trump’s hopes to broker peace to advance its own goals in Ukraine.
However, there is no sign that Moscow has given up on its stated objectives, which include Russian control over five regions of Ukraine and a permanent ban on Ukraine’s NATO membership. The morning after Putin’s remarks, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov seemed eager to reinforce that message. He said that Putin has repeatedly mentioned that Russia is open to dialogue, but the president “never said that the objectives [of the invasion] have changed.” With its forces advancing into eastern Ukraine at the fastest pace since the first months after the full invasion in February 2022, Moscow appears unwilling to compromise. The head of Putin’s Security Council, Sergei Shoigu, also suggested that Moscow is open to talks, but only on its own terms.
“Now, when the situation in the arena of military operations is not in favor of the Kiev regime, the West faces a choice – to continue its financing and the destruction of the Ukrainian people or to accept the current realities and start negotiations.” Shoigu said on November 7.
This is one of the main challenges to any effort by Trump to end the war. A ceasefire or peace satisfactory to Moscow is likely to be seen as a defeat for Kiev and could leave Russia in a position to threaten Ukraine and even the West. Thus, the White House would have a hard time presenting it as a geopolitical victory. With Trump’s inauguration just ten weeks away, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky is trying to prevent that. He is urging the West to send more weapons to help Ukraine improve its position on the battlefield and pave the way for a “just peace”, warning that peace on Russia’s terms would be a grave mistake. “There have been many discussions about the need to submit to Putin, to take steps behind, to make some concessions. This is unacceptable for Ukraine and suicide for all of Europe,” Zelensky said at a meeting of the European Political Community in Budapest on November 7.
The divisions in the West are in danger of going in favor of Russia. Speaking in Budapest on November 8, European Council President Charles Michel backed Zelensky, saying “we have to strengthen Ukraine, support Ukraine, because if we don’t support Ukraine, that’s the wrong signal we’re sending to Putin.” , but also some other authoritarian regimes around the world”.
But Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban, a Trump ally who is also close to Putin, expressed something more or less the opposite. “The situation on the front is clear, there has been a military defeat [for Ukraine],” Orban said. “The Americans will withdraw from this war.” But whether that will happen remains to be seen, despite Trump’s repeated declarations that the war must end and his criticism of the billions of dollars in military aid the United States has given to Ukraine under current President Joe Biden. . Beyond indications that he would use aid to Ukraine as leverage to bring Kiev and Moscow to the negotiating table, Trump has not detailed how he would try to stop the fighting, so the approach he will take remains a variable. essential as the new term approaches.
Trump advisers have floated ideas, some of them publicly. But in a Nov. 6 report citing unnamed Trump allies, The Wall Street Journal reported that he “has not adopted a specific peace plan” or decided on a plan to get Putin and Zelensky “at the same table for negotiated”.
