Eight years ago, the 45th president of the United States was seen as a foreign usurper. When he takes office again on Monday, we will see a shift in the way America sees itself.
By Gerard BAKER
When Donald Trump was first inaugurated as president eight years ago, the atmosphere in Washington resembled that of a hostile and disgruntled capital city being occupied by a foreign army.
The real estate mogul turned reality TV star had won the 2016 election in a surprise and shocking manner. He had lost the popular vote to the favored candidate, Hillary Clinton, but, thanks to the US Constitution, had won the Electoral College and the presidency. His opponents claimed that he had come to power with the help of Russian intelligence and was an illegitimate, even treasonous, president. Ten days before the inauguration, details of the infamous and largely fictional dossier on Trump’s ties to Russia, compiled by former MI6 agent Christopher Steele, were released to the media, including the alleged story of a party with women recorded at a Moscow hotel. The day after the inauguration, Washington hosted a march of tens of thousands of women, many of them wearing pink hats adorned with cat ears, a demonstration intended to show the collective feminist defiance against the new president, following his statements, captured on tape, about the way he treated women.
Much of Washington, the Democratic Party, the nation’s cultural leaders, and especially much of the media—or the “grand viziers” of the American establishment—were prepared to resist and even repel this usurpation of power by a man they considered a bigot, a fraud, and, above all, profoundly un-American; an affront to the nation they believed was theirs.
When, four years later, Trump was defeated by Joe Biden, and then when his supporters’ efforts to overturn the result through the January 6th attack on the Capitol failed, it all seemed like a triumph of resistance. The foreign invasion had been successfully repelled, and the country had been returned to its rightful leaders.
Eight years after that first inauguration and four years after the inauguration of his successor—which he himself boycotted—Trump is back. But this time not as a usurper in a resistant Washington, or as a stranger in holy ground. This time he returns as the undisputed ruler, entering a subdued and defeated capital at the head of a new establishment of Republicans, MAGA supporters, and Silicon Valley executives. For years, serious commentators have wondered whether America, with its increasingly harsh and ruthless partisanship, was sinking into internal conflict. Instead, we have the result of a (mostly) bloodless civil war, which the rebels have won. When he is sworn in, the new military led by Trump will have taken control. This time his election is not a temporary diversion. The old regime has signed the papers of surrender.
As with any post-war settlement, not everyone is happy or fully in agreement with the arrival of the new revolutionary order. But there is no organized (or disorganized) effort to overthrow it. Resistance is futile. At least for the moment, it is silent.
The new reality—Trump’s rise and the silence of his opponents—was clearly on display last week at the funeral of one of his predecessors, Jimmy Carter. Trump, attacked by Democratic leaders in recent years as a fascist, a would-be dictator, stood opposite other former presidents, three of them Democrats—Bill Clinton, Barack Obama and Joe Biden—and one Republican, George W. Bush, who has a disdain for Trump that is almost as deep as that of any Democrat. At the church, Trump chatted and laughed with Obama, the man many still consider the leader of the Democratic establishment. According to highly reliable sources, the two were simply exchanging opinions about their favorite golf courses, while Trump, of course, explained why the properties he owned were the best in the world. But the appearance was strong. Obama has told his friends that the time for resistance is over (although, with her conspicuous absence from this month’s events in Washington, his wife Michelle seems less willing to make public peace with the new regime).
So when Trump becomes the second man in American history, after Grover Cleveland in 1893, to be inaugurated for a second presidential term after being defeated previously, he will enter office with an unusual authority, a mandate not simply for change, but for an entirely new political direction.
All presidents change history through their actions while in office. But some presidents change history only by their election; their popular success represents a fundamental shift in the values and aspirations of the American electorate. Trump’s second victory falls into this category. His clear victory—as the first non-incumbent Republican to win both the popular vote and the electoral college since Ronald Reagan in 1980—and his broad support across ethnicities and geographies reflect a country seeking a new direction, not just from the Biden years but also from the liberal two-party order that preceded Trump, rejecting the progressive orthodoxies that have guided not just politics for the past four years but also the life of the nation.
Americans have turned their backs on much of the globalization that the West had pursued since the end of the Cold War: open-border immigration policies, ambitious intergovernmental agreements and national regulations in pursuit of green energy targets, multilateral cooperation through international security institutions. “America First” has overturned all the pillars of the old order, not just in America but in the world, as we are seeing with electoral results in other countries. America’s submission to Trump also represents a significant cultural moment, a sharp turn away from the fixations on race, gender, and sexual identity that have dominated social and corporate protocols, and have even redefined the permissible boundaries of language and expression.
RETURN TO AN “ANTI-WOKE” ERA
As Christopher Caldwell, a conservative commentator, wrote in the New Statesman this month, Trump’s victory marks the dawn of the anti-woke era. “Although the woke ideology did not originate under the Trump administration, it was during it that it reached its peak: #MeToo in the first year of his presidency (2017); Black Lives Matter in the last (2020)… All Americans, whether Republican or Democrat, have been struck by a revolution that is more social than political. They feel as if they are experiencing the long, slow process of learning to be a free people again.”
But even presidents who represent historic change must govern in order to implement that change. Here, the difference between Trump’s first and second terms is significant. Unlike his first term, where he faced fierce resistance and ongoing investigations, this time his opponents are much weaker. Trump will have a unique opportunity to translate the values he represents into a genuine political revolution—if he chooses to seize the opportunity. But while the circumstances are favorable for a Trump-style populist revolution, two big questions loom large: Does he have the skill and discipline to seize this opportunity and turn his electoral majority into a real change of political direction for the country? And does Trump’s ascension herald a danger to democracy?
With his party subdued, the opposition cowed, and a media relegated to the periphery, does America face a decisive turn toward soft totalitarianism — what Joe Biden, in his farewell speech this week, called a new oligarchy, where powerful business interests collaborate with an authoritarian political leadership, to the detriment of American freedom?
On the first question, there are early signs that Trump appears more disciplined and focused on implementing the agenda this time around than during his first administration. That administration was characterized by a chaotic quality, with a “ringmaster” at its center. Key positions were often filled with traditional Republican figures, many of whom had ideas and plans that conflicted with those of the president.
This time, Trump has assembled a team personally devoted to him, determined to do his bidding. As one observer close to him said this week, key Cabinet officials and other appointments have been chosen in part because “they won’t go out and do something on their own.” Trump’s staff has suggested that, on Day One — Monday — the president will start with great force and determination. A slew of executive orders, a “shock and awe” strategy in several policy areas, is expected. These include immediate measures to curb illegal immigration and to begin deporting illegal immigrants already in the country, starting with those convicted of crimes. Measures are also expected to be announced to expand oil and gas production and strengthen the U.S. energy supply to boost economic growth. He will also announce measures to overturn “woke” cultural hegemony, banning biological men from competing in women’s sports and eliminating the promotion of gender ideology in education and the military.
On foreign policy, his team has been instructed to work quickly to reach a deal on the war in Ukraine. According to a foreign policy expert close to Trump, this could include pressuring Ukraine to agree to give up parts of the country’s east, at least temporarily, a move that he said would give Trump the opportunity to present Vladimir Putin with an ultimatum: accept it or face increased U.S. support for Kiev.
A use of his usual – and admittedly destabilizing – creativity in negotiations is also expected. For example, the threat to annex Greenland is intended to persuade Denmark to allow US access to mineral resources and to expand the US military presence in the Arctic, as part of the global rivalry with China. Similar pressures will be exerted on the EU and NATO to increase military spending. However, we may overestimate Trump’s ability to implement his plans, even at this revolutionary moment. Domestic politics remain divided. Although he is the first Republican in 20 years to win the popular vote, his victory over Kamala Harris was narrow, by only 1.5 percentage points. Republicans gained seats in the Senate, but their majority remains only 53-47; while in the House of Representatives they lost seats and have a very small margin of 219-215.
ECONOMIC CHALLENGE
Economic restrictions are also important. His three main economic initiatives – a big tax cut, tariffs on imported goods and tougher restrictions on immigration – pose serious risks. The US fiscal deficit has risen to almost 7% of GDP, and there are signs in financial markets that, with inflation continuing, investors’ patience for large government debts may be wearing thin. The tariffs will hurt American consumers and could trigger global economic wars. Strict immigration restrictions, not to mention mass deportations, will limit the expansion of the workforce, a vital component of economic growth.
FEAR THAT TRUMP COULD ABUSE FEDERAL LAW
There are, of course, legal limits to Trump’s authority, and this is where the darkest warnings of his critics about democracy come into play. They fear that an empowered Trump will crush dissent and silence critics by using the vast power of federal law enforcement. The selection of Kash Patel, a radical MAGA figure who has spoken out about the prosecution of government employees and journalists, as FBI chief is seen by some as ominous. (According to sources, several prominent journalists have discreetly asked the British Embassy in Washington about the possibility of political asylum in the United Kingdom.)
It would be a mistake to ignore the idea that Trump might try to use the extraordinary power of federal law to go after opponents—after all, he believes, and with some justification, that that is precisely what Joe Biden did against him for four years. But the fear that a Trump “Gestapo” will knock on the doors of political opponents and journalists at night is overblown. While political control over law enforcement is a reality of the American system, things like constitutional rights and independent courts are powerful barriers against abuse.
WHAT ROLE WILL THE SUPREME COURT PLAY?
As for the Supreme Court, which is often described as pro-Trump, it is true that most of the nine justices were appointed by Republican presidents (three of them by Trump himself), and that the same court ruled last year that Trump (indeed, all presidents) was immune from prosecution for official acts. But this is not a blind stamp.
Just last week, two of the conservative justices, including Chief Justice John Roberts and Trump appointee Amy Coney Barrett, joined liberals in rejecting Trump’s efforts to overturn his criminal conviction in the high-profile Stormy Daniels case. In other cases over the past year, these two justices have shown a strong disdain for excessive executive power, setting important limits on the president’s temptations to abuse it.
WHAT WILL TRUMP CHOOSE TO DO?
Ultimately, it will be Trump himself who will answer the most important question: Does he want to use this extraordinary opportunity to bring about a genuine political revolution, with the chance to unite a divided nation around the values that made America great? Or will he use this moment of unprecedented authority to pursue revenge against his opponents, to put his personal interests and ambitions above the needs of the country, and to further harden and poison public discourse? Given what we know about this man, it would be unwise to bet against the latter alternative. But, also, one should not rule out the possibility that this revolution will succeed. (WSJ)
