The incoming German Chancellor Merz seems to be aware of this when he talks about the independence of Europe, as does French President Emmanuel Macron. This seems to be clear to Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk and Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez, as well as to European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen and European Council President António Costa, who visited Kiev with several other European leaders on the third anniversary of Russia’s full-scale invasion.
By Nathalie TOCCI
Russian propagandist Vladimir Soloviev is calling for a military alliance between Vladimir Putin’s Russia and Donald Trump’s America, with the aim of dividing Europe. Trump is cheering the conservative camp’s victory in the German federal elections and seems to be suggesting a united right-wing front after his vice president JD Vance and “shadow president” Elon Musk campaigned for the far-right AfD, which came in second. On the other hand, Frederich Merz, who will be the next German chancellor at the head of a grand coalition between the Christian Democrats (first in the polls) and the Socialists (who fell to third place), speaks explicitly about the need for Europe to be independent of the United States.
What connects these developments? And will there really be European autonomy?
The Kremlin propagandist’s suggestion is not far-fetched. Putin’s Russia and Trump’s America have a convergent vision of the world and Europe. It is a multipolar world without laws and rules, composed of empires (poles) and colonies (spheres of influence). A jungle where those at the top of the food chain survive and dominate, while those at the bottom are forced to kneel or surrender. It is no coincidence that Ukrainian leader Volodymyr Zelensky is as unpopular in the Kremlin as he is in the White House. This is nothing like the proxy war often cited by some self-styled geopolitical experts. The problem is precisely the Ukrainian president’s unwillingness to bow to the powerful, despite his country’s apparent relative weakness compared to Russia, let alone the United States. It is the courage that can only come from an inner connection to the freedom that Putin and Trump aim to destroy. Because their plan for Europe is clear: Russia takes the East and America the West, and in both cases the autonomy of European countries would be eroded if not to the point of its suppression.
There are those who believe that Europe has been a colony of the United States for decades. Washington has undoubtedly been the hegemonic power of the Western world. But it was a world created not only by power relations but also by shared values, norms, and institutions, in which the national interest of the United States coincided with a free, prosperous, and peaceful European continent, and in which American security was seen as inextricably linked to European security.
Trump’s idea is radically different: a weak and divided Europe is easier to dominate. Music to Putin’s ears.
As is known, there are divisions in Europe, and they are of two different registers. There is a first division that comes from history, which unfolds in different but tragically convergent pathologies. In the West there is the Europe of post-45, which does not know what war is and is convinced that the violence it sees on the screen is something distant. In this Europe there are those who supported Ukraine, but they did so considering it a just cause, not their cause. This is why post-45 Europe is very tempted by the chimera of an imperialist “peace” between Putin and Trump.
Of course, it won’t be the just peace they desire, but if the bombs can be silenced, then let it be an unjust peace. By burying their heads in the sand regarding Russia’s stated intentions, but also its preparations for war – today Moscow spends more on defense than the entire continent combined – these Europeans convince themselves that, ultimately, this injustice doesn’t affect them. In their film, the good guys win, because that’s how it’s been since 1945.
To the east, on the other hand, is post-89 Europe. This part of the continent knows very well that Russia’s imperialist ambitions will not stop with Ukraine. But being mostly small, these states know that they cannot defend themselves alone. Post-89 Eastern Europe sees the United States as the white knight who saved them. The film of their generation is also a film in which the good guys win: that is why they have great difficulty accepting the reality in which the white knight joins forces with the brown bear to divide the European spoils. Then there is a second division, this time of an ideological nature.
And here we return to the political project of Putin and Trump-Vance-Musk, which aims to strengthen the far right in Europe. The imperialist project of Russia and the United States is only feasible when Europe finds itself weak and divided. A united Europe is a strong Europe, a much stronger wall to be hit. And there is no faster, cheaper and more painless way to achieve the goal of a fragmented continent than to support the rise of the far right throughout the EU. A Europe in which nationalism and sovereignism prevail is a Europe in which European integration is weakened and eroded; in which the Trumpian and Putinist Trojan horses sow discord in the EU’s common home, preventing it from taking the leap forward in defense, competition, enlargement and the ecological and digital transitions that would allow the continent to avoid ending up as a colonial pawn.
The incoming German Chancellor Merz seems to be aware of this when he talks about the independence of Europe, as does French President Emmanuel Macron. This seems to be clear to Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk and Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez, as well as to European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen and European Council President António Costa, who visited Kiev with several other European leaders on the third anniversary of Russia’s full-scale invasion.
We can only hope that in addition to awareness, they will not lack courage. The courage that Zelensky and the Ukrainians have shown in these three years, but which is often lacking in the rest of the continent.
