None of the neighboring countries that appear to be the target of Belgrade’s territorial ambitions have “war-ready” armed forces. Without the protection of the two Western peacekeeping missions of NATO in Kosovo (KFOR) and the EU in Bosnia (EUFOR/Althea), they would be easy prey for Belgrade’s aggressive expansionism.
By Alexander RHOTERT
Is Serbia planning to destabilize or even militarily attack its neighboring states, Kosovo and Bosnia-Herzegovina? The President of Kosovo, Vjosa Osmani, and her Bosnian counterpart, Denis Beçirović, recently warned about this scenario. Osmani said in a television interview in September that he hoped that the Western Balkans would join the EU and NATO, “but the precondition for this is to treat Serbia as it is: a satellite state of Russia, which deepens military, economic and political cooperation with Russia”. Bečirović’s warning about Serbia’s territorial desires before the United Nations General Assembly in New York was even stronger: “From the floor of the United Nations General Assembly I would like to warn the world public that the leadership of the Republic of Serbia threatens once again to violate the sovereignty and territorial integrity of Bosnia-Herzegovina”.
BELGRADE IS ARMING
In fact, Belgrade has been massively arming the country’s military with modern weapon systems for years. Belgrade has bought French fighter jets and Russian attack helicopters, which Serbian President Aleksandar Vučić called “flying tanks”. In addition, immediately after Russia attacked Ukraine, Beijing sent Chinese anti-aircraft systems to Serbia. There are also reports that Serbia has bought thousands of drones from Iran, of the type that Russia uses every day against Ukrainian cities. “The Economist” magazine wrote in 2021 that Belgrade’s “arms purchases” are scaring neighboring countries. Meanwhile, the well-known Swedish Institute for Conflict Research “SIPRI” declared in 2022 that Belgrade’s defense budget is 1.3 billion euros, i.e. ten times larger than Kosovo’s.
Serbia’s military superiority is also illustrated by its inventory of tanks. With around 250 tanks, Serbia has more tanks than all the other former Yugoslav republics combined – for comparison: the German army, the Bundeswehr, has 295 tanks. Croatia ranks second with 75, Bosnia third with 45, followed by North Macedonia with 31. And neither Montenegro nor Kosovo have tanks. This is probably one of the reasons why Kosovo’s armed forces were equipped last year with Turkish Bayraktar drones and this year with 250 American Javelin anti-tank missiles.
THE PROJECT FOR A SERBIAN WORLD
The question arises why Belgrade has accumulated a large arsenal of weapons over the years without being threatened by its neighbors. Is President Vucic making plans to attack neighboring countries, as the President of Kosovo warned? At least this is what the statements, threats and actions of the Serbian leadership in Belgrade suggest. It propagates the “Serbian World” project, a somewhat scaled-down successor version of the “Greater Serbia” of former Serbian president Slobodan Milosevic, thus striking a chord with Serbs in neighboring countries, Kosovo and Bosnia.
ALL-SERBIAN ASSEMBLY
In early June 2024, Vucic led an “all-Serb assembly” in Belgrade with representatives of Serbs from all areas of the former Yugoslavia, a strategic meeting that essentially formulated the plan for the implementation of the “Serb World”. In the “All-Serbian Declaration” Kosovo is mentioned as part of Serbia and Republika Srpska, the Serb-dominated part of Bosnia and Herzegovina, as “the national interest of Serbia”. A spokesman for the Foreign Ministry in Berlin condemned this statement in an extremely harsh manner. The German government considers the “All-Serbian Declaration” as “very disturbing and harmful for Bosnia and Herzegovina, for Serbia and for all the countries of the Western Balkans”. Bečirović commented on the Belgrade meeting in his speech at the United Nations as follows: “The destructive declaration of the so-called All-Serbian Assembly, approved on June 8 of this year in Belgrade, is not only a declarative action, but a dangerous document for a big country”.
WAR IN THE BALKANS?
None of the neighboring countries that appear to be the target of Belgrade’s territorial ambitions have “war-ready” armed forces. Without the protection of the two Western peacekeeping missions of NATO in Kosovo (KFOR) and the EU in Bosnia (EUFOR/Althea), they would be easy prey for Belgrade’s aggressive expansionism. In recent years, the deployment of Serbian troops on the border with Kosovo and the attack of a Serbian paramilitary unit on the security forces of Kosovo caused several stirs and riots. This is because such attacks by Serbian paramilitary units preceded the war in Croatia in 1991 and the war in Bosnia a year later.
Recent military incidents may have been Belgrade’s trial balloons. But since the US and NATO reactions were too quick and sharp, Belgrade backed down. In August 2024, Washington intervened again, this time with CIA Director William Burns, who went to Bosnia and Herzegovina specifically to stop the separatist actions of Bosnian Serb leader Milorad Dodik. He has repeatedly taken steps to declare the independence of Republika Srpska and has equipped thousands of paramilitaries. Politicians in the capital Sarajevo are bracing for the possibility that Republika Srpska could continue secession efforts. In the event that an armed conflict breaks out and the Bosnian Serbs come under military pressure, it is very likely that Belgrade will send its tanks into Bosnia to rescue them.
A new war in the Balkans cannot be ruled out. And now that Donald Trump will again take power in Washington, it is completely unclear how the superpower USA will behave in such a case. A promising candidate for the post of foreign minister is the former US ambassador to Germany, Richard Grenell. Along with Trump’s son-in-law, Jared Kushner, he has strong business interests in Serbia. (DW)
