The White House would do well to see this move as the propaganda maneuver that it is, and as a strong indication of Putin’s need to keep Trump involved. For now, it seems that Trump and Rubio’s stick is working better than the carrot.
By Richard KEMP
Was Putin the first to back down on the Ukraine issue? Since taking office in January, Donald Trump has been demanding an end to hostilities. The US president proposed a full ceasefire, which Ukraine accepted, but Russia rejected, conditional on a halt to mobilizations by Ukraine and an end to arms supplies from the West.
After complicated negotiations between Washington and Moscow, Americans expressed their frustration on Friday, led by Trump and his Secretary of State, Marco Rubio, who threatened to withdraw from peace mediation if there were no signs of progress in the coming days.
This seems to have shocked Putin, as the following day he declared a unilateral ceasefire on the occasion of Easter.
This is a clear maneuver to keep Trump’s attention and give him the opportunity, in his characteristic style, to declare some kind of victory in the negotiations. Although Putin will not give in to Ukraine’s demands, especially that it give up the occupied territories, he wants this war to end – at least for now.
The Russian economy is in dire straits, and Moscow needs a long pause in hostilities to begin its recovery. Moreover, Russia cannot afford the risk of tougher sanctions currently being discussed between the US and European countries, with further talks expected in London next week.
Putin also fears Trump. He knows full well that Trump’s caresses over Ukraine and what some see as closeness to Russia are in fact mere negotiating tactics.
He also knows that the unpredictable figure in the White House is more than capable of changing course at a moment’s notice—in any direction, and in ways that could be extremely damaging to Russia. On a broader level, Putin has recently lost influence in the Middle East—after the fall of the Assad regime in Syria. He cannot afford to lose any more influence. Worse, he does not know what Trump will do about Iran, with which Russia has a strategic partnership that includes, among other things, the continued supply of drones and other weapons for the war in Ukraine.
Putin’s concerns about Trump’s Iran policy were highlighted recently, when Moscow was forced to declare that it had no obligation to defend Iran in the event of an attack. All of this suggests that Putin is seeking some rehabilitation from the Trump administration, rather than provoking it.
Despite this medium-term perspective, we can be sure that Putin is not sincere in announcing the ceasefire and is certainly not motivated by humanitarian or religious considerations. In addition to trying to appease Trump and keep his attention focused on the negotiations, this is also a crude attempt to turn the narrative against the Ukrainian side. In announcing the ceasefire, Putin left open the possibility of withdrawing, saying that he assumed Kiev would accept it. He also deliberately emphasized to General Valery Gerasimov, his Chief of Staff, that Russian forces should be prepared for “provocations” from the Ukrainian side. This is a clear indication of his intention to capture or fabricate any such incident and to pretend that Volodymyr Zelensky is not serious about peace efforts, shifting the blame to Ukraine and prompting further demands on it from the White House.
While he has not outright rejected Putin’s ceasefire, the Ukrainian president has rightly accused him of “playing with people’s lives.” Whether this ceasefire will hold, even for a short time, remains to be seen. But the White House would do well to see this move as the propaganda maneuver that it is, and as a strong indication of Putin’s need to keep Trump involved. For now, it seems that Trump and Rubio’s stick is working better than the carrot.
