By Yordan Antonov
The level of support for accession to the European Union (EU) among the citizens of North Macedonia always depends on the pace of the integration process. In the years when the country made concrete progress, the process had great support. And, vice versa: when integration slowed down or was blocked, support for the EU fell. Due to the complexity of the process and the lack of political consensus to overcome the open issues with Greece and Bulgaria, the opinion towards the EU has often been the result of clashes between political parties, and less so of external influences or developments.
The Trajectory of the Fall
Immediately after gaining independence, in the 90s, support for the EU was almost absolute. EU integration was set as a second utmost priority after joining NATO, uniting all ethnic group and political parties so far. When asked if a referendum would be held tomorrow and it would be necessary to decide on the country’s integration into the EU, nearly 90 percent said “in favor”. Then, due to the lack of a clear European perspective and the veto from Greece, this support has gradually started to decline. According to surveys of the Institute for Democracy ” Societas Civilis ” published at the end of December 2023, in 2014 this support was 80%, while today it has fallen to 60 percent. The current low level of support for the EU is present due to the veto from Bulgaria as it is not possible to open the first chapters.
The reason behind not being able to open the first chapters, i.e. the lack of constitutional changes in North Macedonia, has again returned pessimism to the citizens. November 2023 was set to be the deadline for approving the changes, the month when the screening phase ended, but the main parties did not reach an agreement in order to secure the two-thirds of the votes in the Parliament, necessary to approve the changes to the Constitution. This has induced even more scepticism towards the EU: the latest survey published by the Institute for Democracy shows that the new generation of citizens (18-23 years) has a lower percentage of support for the EU, and is only 52 percent.
What Alternatives are There to the European Union?
The latest research shows that not only is support for the EU falling, but among the citizens of North Macedonia, the percentage of those who think that the country has an alternative to EU integration is increasing. Almost half of citizens think that another alternative union (BRICS, for example) would be a good alternative to the EU. The unpublished results (crosstabulations) of the survey carried out by BRIMA (commissioned by Eurothink and BIRC), show that there is a large ethnic difference when it comes to support for EU integration.
Only 31.7 percent of ethnic Macedonians agree with the thought that “Integration in the EU is a good thing”, while among ethnic Albanians this is 84.2 percent. In other communities, support for this finding is close to 45 percent. 62.2 percent of ethnic Macedonians, and only 6 percent of ethnic Albanians think that the EU’s attitude towards North Macedonia is incorrect. Among ethnic Macedonians, 48.9 percent think that the EU is the best alternative, while 46.4 percent think that the country should look for an alternative to the Union. Among ethnic Albanians, the majority (91.1 percent) think that the EU is the best alternative, while only 8.5 percent believe that they should look for an alternative.
There are also ethnic differences in the expectations of when the country will become part of the EU: half of the ethnic Macedonians believe that the process will last from 10-26 years, while 33 percent say that the country will never become a member; while 55 percent of ethnic Albanians believe that integration will be achieved within the next 15 years.
What unites both ethnic communities is the reasons why they support EU integration, which are: better life, reduced unemployment, greater democracy. When it comes to the reasons for opposing EU integration, ethnic Macedonians say that the main reason is the loss of ethnic identity (narrative of the opposition to oppose the agreement with Greece and Bulgaria), while among ethnic Albanians – the escaping young people.
In The End Albania Might Pull Skopje into the EU
So, the three vetoes by EU members (Greece 2008-2018, France 2019 and Bulgaria 2020-present) are the main factor that have increased Euroscepticism in the country and reduced support for the Union to its lowest point. This policy of cyclical vetoes in turn produce politicians who are not so committed and motivated for reforms, such as the current government in Skopje. The higher the support for the EU, the greater the civic pressure on politics to meet the criteria for membership. In essence, politics is not that interested in EU membership due to the loss of some control over institutions that should function as independent, such as those of the judicial system.
The fact that there are large ethnic differences when it comes to the perception and support of European integration, makes this issue important for the security and stability of North Macedonia. In a situation where Albania would move forward in the negotiation process alone, North Macedonian ethnic Albanians would feel frustrated because of “long waits caused by ethnic Macedonians”.
Taking into account the different views regarding the alternatives of the EU, the possibility of the exchange of territories between Kosovo and Serbia as a final agreement (especially if Donald Trump returns to power in the US), the secessionist tendencies of the ethnic Serbs in Bosnia and Herzegovina, then even among the ethnic Albanians of North Macedonia, the political movements propagandizing secession from North Macedonia and attachment to Albania would be strengthened. If we have an Albania that is closer to the EU, then the efforts to join Albania would be presented as complementary to those for integration in the EU. A moment that would undoubtedly be the starting point of a more serious inter-ethnic conflict.
