By Obrad Jovanović
With the advent of the new European Parliament and the new European Commission in place, hopes are up again in certain circles about Montenegro’s accession to the European Union. Overt naivite is not the way to go though. The relevant new commissioners might not be all that eager to take Montenegro in as many promises have been made to other countries, most importantly, to Georgia and Ukraine. Hopefully Montenegro will not eventually find itself in a spiral of grand gestures without reply from Brussels.
Accession: Optimism-turned-Faultline
The ruling coalition believes that Montenegro can become a member of the EU by 2028. The biggest enthusiasm is shared among PES officials, who also believe that it is possible to close all chapters by 2026 and leave the following two years (2026 – 2028) for the EU member states to agree on Montenegro’s accession and subsequently ratify the agreement in their respective parliaments. This enthusiasm dominates the PES and party members seem ready to do whatever it takes to accomplish the goal.
However, the opposition parties do not believe that Montenegro is going to join the EU by 2028. Accordingly, they are not missing chances to underscore the government’s achievements. The adoption of the Jasenovac genocide resolution in the Montenegrin parliament this summer was widely used by the opposition parties and NGOs to launch a political offensive against the government and set the mood for an apocalyptic scenario where the adoption of this resolution permanently bans Montenegro from joining the EU. Certainly, the adoption of this resolution had negative consequences on Montenegro’s relations with Croatia; perhaps, the adoption could have been postponed for some time. However, the adoption of this resolution was necessary.
Bulking Up The Nation
Another mobilizing and polarizing point might be the upcoming government’s aim to change the law on citizenship which would ease Montenegro’s strict citizenship law for those already residing in Montenegro to obtain it. According to them, the law would only enable those refugees who came to Montenegro from Bosnia and Kosovo in the 1990s. However, consequently, it will be applicable to all those who now come to live and manage to fulfill the criteria. The opposition parties are problematizing this citizenship law change as most of those refugees are ethnically Serbs, rather than Albanians or Bosniaks. However, Spajic stated that they would not have a voting right for the following 10 years after obtaining citizenship.
Change in the citizenship law has to be done cautiously. Refugees have been living in Montenegro for 30+ years and already have families, but this measure may open the doors to thousands of other foreign citizens.
Pride and For What?
Ursula von der Leyen paid the visit to Montenegro on Saturday, 26th of October, during which she stated that “you have good reason to be proud of what has been achieved, you can close four chapters by the end of the year. I am impressed with both the speed and the quality. This whole process is based on merit, but I am sure that you will achieve the goals.” Von der Leyen visited Montenegro, and the Western Balkans, to mark the beginning of her new term, but also to inaugurate 380 million EUR that Montenegro is set to get in its pre-accession process. The first part of 29 million EUR will be available by the end of the year.
However, there is another neglected element that plays a big role – the French constitution which requires that new members of the EU must be either confirmed at the referendum by the French people or by 3/5 in the French Parliament. Currently, neither option seems realistic; but with enough pressure from Germany, the second option might be achieved.
Moreover, the European Parliament has chosen a new rapporteur for Montenegro, Marjan Sarec, former Prime Minister of Slovenia, who is allegedly close to the Democrats of Aleksa Becic. The previous rapporteur was Tonino Picula from Croatia. The problematic part of having rapporteurs from neighboring Balkan countries is a justified belief that these people might have been compromised in a way by the former ruling DPS and former president Djukanovic. Picula was a strong DPS supporter and invested significant efforts to undermine governments that followed after 2020.
What Does the Average Citizen Think?
European Parliament usually does not take particularly important space in the daily Montenegrin politics and public. It is in the spotlight only when Montenegrin politicians are citing members of the European Parliament to show that they, or their narrative, are supported by them.
The rise of far-right parties in the European Parliament was noticed by Montenegrin citizens; however, it is believed that far-right groups do not occupy considerably big space to be decision-makers on new EU members. The Netherlands and France have for a long time been very reluctant to accept the idea of enlargement. Now, it might be more problematic as the new Dutch government is right-wing.
In each setting of the European Parliament, there were always small groups of members who would be very supportive of the narrative disseminated by the DPS, or who would give statements that play along DPS’s narrative.This is dangerous as it is jeopardizing the image of the EU (it is common to identify EP with the EU). While the EP members do play an important role, they are rather ambassadors of their parties or individual actors milking out the money for lobbying.
Montenegrin politicians usually have high hopes for the European Parliament (EP) and the European Union (EU) as they work toward EU membership. Montenegrin politicians expect that the EU will remain dedicated to the country’s integration by providing clear advice, assistance, and reform incentives.
Until now, the European Commissioner for Neighborhood and Enlargement, Oliver Varhely, played an essential role in supporting Montenegro’s EU accession process. With the appointment of Marta Kos from Slovenia to this position, expectations remain high that she will continue to be an advocate for Montenegro’s progress.
However, the Western Balkans may lose momentum in their EU accession efforts due to a shift in focus. Kaja Kallas, the incoming High Representative of the European Union for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy, is anticipated to prioritize Ukraine, Moldova, and Georgia—countries that are unlikely to join the EU anytime soon. Kallas will use her position in relation to the Western Balkans more as a platform for anti-Russian activities than a platform for actual problem-solving in the region; which would be an unnecessary wasting of energy and capacities. On the other side, Ursula von der Leyen is publicly pushing strongly for the integration of the Western Balkans to the EU; but, she is also pushing for Ukraine’s integration and we know that is not going to happen in decades to come.
One positive aspect for Montenegro might be the developments in Georgia, where the Georgian Dream party will most likely secure a victory after which the EU will most certainly freeze negotiations with the country. In addition, the outcome of the Moldovan referendum should send a strong signal to the EU that Moldovans do not want to be part of the EU, and the EU should not prioritize their integration over the Western Balkans.
