If we were to accept American demands to increase defense spending to around 3% of GDP, this would mean tens of billions of euros every year. Even if we were to arm ourselves, are we sure that we would be able to fight in this cultural climate? In this pacified climate, where the idea of war has been ruled out as a possibility? In a society where there are no more peasants to send to the front and where the average age of Italians is 48? After all, what kind of war can we wage?
By Lucio CARACCIOLO
“We interrupt the broadcasts to communicate to you extraordinary news. The German armed forces have surrendered to the Anglo-Americans. The war is over. I repeat, the war is over”. This was the voice of Corrado, the legendary Corrado Mantoni, presenter and television host, known for the Sanremo Festival, “Carramba! Che sorpresa”. It was May 8, 1945 and Corrado announced with this powerful voice and with that strongly pronounced “R”, that the nightmare of World War II had come to an end. Almost 80 years have passed since that day, the time when the so-called Pax Americana began, 80 years of peace and security in Europe, which are perhaps coming to an end. Because the Americans, apparently, are tired of keeping their nuclear umbrella open over our continent; they have many internal problems, and their crisis, including the cultural one, is so deep that they can no longer deal with us. This has put us in a difficult position, to the extent that there is talk of rearmament throughout Europe.
But let’s look at the current situation on the ground. There are about 100 American soldiers in Europe, most of them in Germany. The second largest American presence is Italy, with 14 soldiers spread across several bases, such as Aviano, Vicenza, Ghedi, and Sigonella in Sicily. Italy also has several dozen atomic bombs, managed with the so-called dual-key system, which in theory means that the Americans have to ask us for permission before releasing them. I find it a bit complicated, but that’s how things are.
What happens if the Americans pull the plug? If, for example, they withdraw at least some of the troops and stop the supply of weapons?
We must remember that today 64% of the weapons that arrive in Europe are purchased by the Americans. Also, half of our most advanced weapons – from the fifth-generation F-35 fighter jets, to Patriot missiles, Reaper drones and radars – depend on American maintenance and software. The famous F-35 aircraft, which are also produced in Italy, cannot take off if the Americans decide to deactivate the source code. At this point, it seems that each country within NATO is moving for its own account. The French and the British, relying on their nuclear weapons – which are worth very little compared to the luxurious American arsenal – are trying to present themselves as guarantors of the continent’s security. President Macron even offers the famous French nuclear arsenal, as if it were European. The problem is that there is a button, but there are 27 European fingers wanting to press it – perhaps a bit too many for a single French button. On the other hand, the British also say they want to protect us, despite having left the European Union.
But the problem is that the British, in terms of their nuclear arsenal, depend to a large extent on American aid and assistance. So, just like the F-35 aircraft manufactured in Italy, British nuclear bombs also depend on the goodwill – if we can call it that – of their “cousins” across the Atlantic. And all this, in the total absence of a genuine European project, while the various countries of Europe are thinking more and more about their interests and are throwing their own problems at others.
Today, in Europe, especially in the countries of the North and East – from Sweden to the Baltic states, Poland and even Romania – they see the war in Ukraine as an opportunity to end Russian power once and for all, perhaps even with the dissolution of the Russian Federation. Others try to imagine or dream of a peaceful equilibrium that could transform this uncertain period, filled with fire and war in Ukraine, into a new era of peace, balance and pan-European security.
All this, of course, does not give much hope for the unity of Europeans in the face of this crisis. There is increasing talk of rearmament of Europe as a form of compensation for this danger. Some even mention the scenario that Russia could come to Europe, perhaps as far as Tsar Alexander reached in the time of Napoleon – that is, to Paris.
But looking at the situation calmly, this scenario seems unlikely, given that after three years of war, the Russians are still only in part of Donbas. However, this does not matter, since today in Europe a somewhat emotionally charged, not to say hysterical, climate prevails, and plans for rearmament are being drawn up everywhere. One thing we can say for sure: there will be no European rearmament, because such rearmament would require a common concept and, above all, a single European state with a clear strategy. Von der Leyen’s plan is simply a statement of intentions. What will happen, and which risks having a major economic and strategic impact, is the rearmament of individual European states – the 27 member states, but also those that are not part of the European Union – which are already preparing major rearmament plans.
Consider Germany, where Chancellor Merz’s new government, still waiting to take office, is talking about spending between 50 and 150 billion euros a year on rearmament. But rearmament is also a topic in Italy, where the aim is to increase the number of soldiers – currently around 160 – and to buy more modern weapons. But with what funds will we pay for them?
If we were to accept American demands to increase defense spending to around 3% of GDP, this would mean tens of billions of euros every year. Even if we were to arm ourselves, are we sure that we would be able to fight in this cultural climate? In this pacified climate, where the idea of war has been ruled out as an option? In a society where there are no more peasants to send to the front and where the average age of Italians is 48? After all, what kind of war can we wage? Another risk that perhaps needs to be considered is that in these 80 years, for the first time in centuries – even since the Pax Romana – we Europeans have not killed each other because the Americans were there. But if the Americans leave, are we sure that we will not start again?
