Europe’s security passes through Kiev. Understanding this means that the leaders of the “coalition of the willing” will continue to support Ukraine. They know that Russia poses the greatest threat to Europe
By Nathalie TOCCI
Last week, my train arrived in Kiev as Russian ballistic missiles and drones pounded the city, killing a mother and her son. A little over a year ago, I was last in Ukraine. Back then, in April 2024, the atmosphere was grim. People were frustrated by delays in Western military aid and had a clear fear of Russia’s territorial advances – and even the possibility of a collapse of Ukraine’s front line. Today, the international context is even more tense. The Biden administration was very slow and timid, but few doubted that the US did not want to stop Russia from winning. The same cannot be said for Donald Trump, whose ideological closeness to Vladimir Putin has destabilized Europe, starting with Ukraine.
But despite the betrayals of the Trump administration, I found a more confident atmosphere in Kiev than a year ago. After more than three years of war, Ukrainians are tired but not exhausted. The soldiers, civil society representatives, parliamentarians, and government officials I met seemed increasingly determined to resist and defend their country.
This confidence stems from the country’s growing self-sufficiency. The Ukrainian drone industry is impressive in terms of technological advantage, adaptability, mass production, and speed. In the production of drones and artillery, Ukraine is getting stronger day by day. It has no reason to envy many of its European neighbors and has much to learn from them.
And while the lack of personnel is a problem, the Ukrainian army – especially the professional units – (unfortunately) understands war better than other forces anywhere in Europe. Of course, realism prevails in Kiev: no one thinks that this understanding is enough to regain lost territory. But while peace through military victory over Russia is no longer expected, neither is the fear of defeat as it once was. Ukraine is quietly calculating, seeking a lasting ceasefire through deterrence.
Kjo nuk do të thotë se ukrainasit mendojnë se mund – apo duan – të veprojnë të vetëm. Është e qartë ndjesia e zhgënjimit nga ShBA-ja. Por, në Kiev, ka një vetëdije të qartë se Ukraina ende ka nevojë për Uashingtonin, veçanërisht për inteligjencën, mbikëqyrjen, zbulimin dhe mbrojtjen ajrore. Është e vërtetë që është shqetësuese afërsia e hapur mes Shtëpisë së Bardhë dhe Kremlinit. Por, ukrainasit gjithashtu besojnë se Putini do të vazhdojë ta teprojë me kërkesat e veta. Kjo është arsyeja se pse Volodymyr Zelenskyy e sfidoi këtë javë, duke propozuar një takim ballë për ballë në Stamboll. Putini, në pozicion jo të mirë, mund të nxjerrë një tjetër lepur diplomatik nga kapela, për të fituar kohë, për të shtyrë sanksionet e reja dhe për të përçarë sërish Perëndimin. Por, po bëhet gjithnjë e më e qartë, edhe për Shtëpinë e Bardhë që simpatizon Putinin, se Rusia tani nuk dëshiron t’i japë fund luftës. Kjo, së bashku me marrëveshjen për mineralet që Ukraina nënshkroi me administratën Trump, mund të ketë ndikuar në një ripozicionim të kujdesshëm të Uashingtonit.
The war in Ukraine could never be ended in 24 hours, as Trump boasted, because it was never a war between the West and Russia, as Russian propaganda claimed and as Trump seemed to believe. The war is not ending because the only man who can stop it—Putin—continues to think he can win. This truth may not move Trump to change course toward full support for Ukraine. But it may move Washington from an actively hostile stance toward Kiev to one of inaction. In this scenario, the United States would gradually withdraw from the war, while continuing to offer or allow the sale of military capabilities to Ukraine. And while this is not ideal, Kiev can tolerate a US that withdraws amicably much more easily than a US that openly obstructs it.
The other side of the coin is that Ukraine is increasingly integrated into the new European security architecture that is now taking shape. On Europe Day, May 9, EU foreign ministers gathered in Lviv. A few hours later, the leaders of France, Germany, Poland and the United Kingdom arrived in Kiev – their first joint visit. This was not just symbolic: these states, together with the Nordic and Baltic countries, constitute not only the core of the “coalition of the willing” supporting Ukraine, but also the new European security architecture that is emerging from the Russian threat and disillusionment with the United States.
Their support for Ukraine, both diplomatic and military, is essential to show the world – and especially Washington – that it is Putin and Putin alone who wants the war to continue.
Çfarëdo që të ndodhë këtë javë, është thelbësore që udhëheqësit evropianë të mos kufizohen në diskutime për një “forcë sigurie”, pas një marrëveshjeje për një Ukrainë të ndarë territorialisht. Kjo ide ka qenë e rëndësishme për të ruajtur moralin ukrainas kur dukej se Trumpi ishte përqafuar plotësisht me Putinin. Dhe, qeveritë evropiane duhet të jenë të gatshme të përforcojnë kapacitetet parandaluese të Ukrainës në ajër, det dhe tokë, kurdo që lufta të nisë të fashitet. Por, përparësia e menjëhershme është tjetër. Një armëpushim i qëndrueshëm, për fat të keq, nuk duket i afërt. Rusia mund të pranojë një pauzë afatshkurtër, por vështirë se do të ndalojë përfundimisht luftimet në muajt e ardhshëm.
Therefore, Ukraine’s allies must be ready to support it in an ongoing war. This means increasing European military support. It also means cooperating to strengthen Ukraine’s defense industry, through joint projects with European companies. Equally important is Ukraine’s broader integration into European security and defense plans and actions. Ukraine’s battlefield experience, born of the tragedy of war, is invaluable as Europe strives to strengthen collective defense.
Europe’s security passes through Kiev. Understanding this means that the leaders of the “coalition of the willing” will continue to support Ukraine. They know that Russia poses the greatest threat to Europe.
