By Andrej Marković
Montenegro initiated accession talks with the European Union in 2012, sparking a prevailing sense of optimism despite occasional ironic comments from ordinary people that “we will never enter the EU” and some skeptical views that the EU doesn’t want Montenegro, the overall sentiment remains positive.
The majority of Montenegrins believe their country has the best chances among Western Balkan nations for EU accession. Negative perceptions, fueled by media outlets like In4s and Borba, include fears of price increases and conservative concerns about the potential erosion of tradition.
All About Benefits and Pragmatism: the EU is Definitely the Best Club
Since its independence in 2006, Montenegro has fully adjusted its foreign policy with that of the EU. All of the EU’s foreign policy measures are adopted by Montenegro as well. Noteworthy decisions, such as Montenegro’s sanctions against Russia and the recognition of Kosovo, although initially unpopular, demonstrate a pragmatic approach to enhance Montenegro’s stance. The rationale behind those decisions, as articulated by the DPS, is that these decisions aim to benefit Montenegro rather than damage
relations with Russia or Serbia. Despite these decisions being unpopular, the people were still willing to go with it if it would eventually bring Montenegro into the EU. Overall, the prevailing sentiment is one of optimism.
Montenegrins believe that joining the EU will bring economic prosperity and opportunity to find work abroad or to come back home from abroad more willingly as we have a number of students studying abroad in Europe.
The poll published in December 2023 by the De Facto agency showed that 78.5% of Montenegrin citizens support Montenegro’s membership in the European Union. The poll also found that 76% of Montenegrins believe that Montenegro will become a member of the EU. The poll also showed that 86.8% of Montenegrins would vote in a referendum on EU membership and that 90% of those who voted would vote in favor of membership. The poll also found that 40.8% of Montenegrins think that the country is not moving fast enough towards EU membership.
Eventual Accession Even Has The Blessing
In contrast to Montenegro, Serbia’s media landscape is characterized by neutrality or pro-Russian positions. On the other side, Montenegro’s media predominantly supports EU accession. The duration of accession talks, in my opinion, is not the main factor as Turkey has never been considered a prospective EU member by either side.
Generally speaking, Montenegrins want the country to join the EU, and there isn’t any domestic cohesive actor that is mobilizing people against the EU. Even the Serbian Orthodox Church is a constructive partner of the EU in Montenegro. Though the Church had withdrawn from political life after the 2023 Agreement signed with the government; in key moments, it gave statements supportive of the international community in 2021.
Occasionally, the Serbian Orthodox Church in Montenegro is wrongly accused of being either a pro-Russian proxy or an element sparking anti-EU sentiments. The Serbian Orthodox Church is very deeply established in Montenegro, so it does not need help from Russia to penetrate society. In addition, the Church is aware that Montenegro joining the EU could only have benefits for them too. For example, the SOC played a key role in the 1990s when it chose to tacitly support pro-Western Milo Djukanovic over pro-Serbian Momir Bulatovic. In 2006 when Montenegro became independent, the SOC tacitly advised people to accept the results of the referendum instead of disputing the outcome.
The parties of the former Democratic Front are seen as an anti-EU force; however, the parties of the former Democratic Front will not block any progress made in the direction of joining the EU, as they also, now particularly when they elevated to state positions, see it as beneficial. This is why, instead of ignoring them, the Western diplomats should talk to the Democratic Front.
Opposition from the Outside
Montenegro is in fact unlucky only to have Vladimir Bilcik, Tonino Piculo, and Miroslav Lajcak from the EU’s side, who, among other things, draft or contribute to drafting Montenegro’s EU yearly progress reports. There are assessments which firmly state that these three persons are actively undermining the EU’s reputation in Montenegro by tacitly siding with Montenegro’s former ruling Democratic Party of Socialists (DPS).
According to them, Montenegro was doing brilliantly until 2020, and all hell broke loose after 2020, an assessment that couldn’t be further from the truth. Montenegro became a solid democracy with true freedom of speech and freedom of media only after 2020.
Promising Signs on the Inside, Self-Distancing from Brussels
Montenegro’s current chances for EU accession are deemed higher than ever, mostly due to two factors: a new government willing to implement reforms, and geopolitics in light of the Ukraine war.
However, a burden for Montenegro might be the decision of the EU to welcome all Western Balkan countries at once, instead of one by one, which would definitely postpone Montenegro’s accession, especially after the recent snap elections in Serbia, which were most likely organized to additionally postpone any negotiations with Kosovo. Moreover, Bosnia and Herzegovina is now at a disadvantage when compared to Ukraine or Moldova, while Kosovo has yet to reach the level of Bosnia and Herzegovina.
Speaking about the recent decision of the EU on Ukraine and Moldova, there is not yet any quantitative data to elaborate further on; however, it is safe to say that the EU’s decision was not welcomed by the Western Balkans countries. It additionally fuels the assessment that the EU’s enlargement is not based on criteria, but rather on political will.
Montenegrins are hopeful about Spajic’s government bringing the country closer to the EU, despite the government postponing the increase of minimum wages to 750 Eur only in 2025 or very late 2024.
While Montenegro enjoys the support of many EU member states to join the union, it might not be enough if there is no green light from France and Germany – and those countries see the region as a whole and are not interested in case-by-case admittance to the EU. Moreover, Germany is actively pursuing abolishing census vote on the EU level before any enlargement. If Germany sticks to that precondition, the whole enlargement could take many more years as smaller EU member states might not be willing to give up on consensus voting.
