Although Ukrainians have long repeated that they do not intend to give up the territories occupied by Russia at the negotiating table, in Kiev they have begun to give it at least the same weight as receiving security guarantees and determining where to draw the ceasefire line
The re-election to the White House of Donald Trump, who aims to end the conflict as soon as possible, could accelerate the timetable for Kiev’s negotiations with Moscow, thus risking putting the government led by President Volodymyr Zelensky at a disadvantage. For this reason, although Ukrainians have long repeated that they have no intention of giving up territories occupied by Russia at the negotiating table, in Kiev they have begun to give it at least as much weight as obtaining security guarantees and determining where to draw the ceasefire line.
PEACE THROUGH STRENGTH
“The territorial issue is extremely important,” a Ukrainian official tells the New York Times, “but it is always the second point. The first is security guarantees.” A concept echoed by Roman Kostenko, head of the defense and intelligence committee of the Kiev parliament, who declares that “nothing is more important” than talks based on guarantees. However, Russia’s refusal to accept Ukraine’s application to join NATO is well-known. Zelensky, who has not abandoned the “peace through strength” strategy, nevertheless intends to maintain the support of Western allies to strengthen the army and improve the situation of troops on the battlefield in view of the negotiations. The New York Times reports that this would be just one of the many approaches followed by the Eastern European country.
THE “CARDS” SHIFTING
The Ukrainian president heard Trump a few hours after his re-election congratulating him on his victory in the elections and according to the website Axios “he did not leave the conversation with a sense of despair” despite the fact that the tycoon’s positions were very different from those of Joe Biden. On the other hand, the two leaders have already known each other since Donald’s first term and also met in September when the electoral campaign in the US still seemed very uncertain. However, it is not only Trump’s return that has changed the cards on the table. Compared to when Kiev presented its “plan for victory” earlier this summer, Zelensky’s line has actually softened.
ZELENSKY’S 10 POINTS
A “resistance” plan: this is how Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky defined the 10-point strategy for Ukraine’s survival, currently under development. The plan was announced yesterday, and will most likely be presented next week. “There are ten points in total, which will be presented next week, and for each point, together with Ukrainian civil society, together with all those who are ready to contribute rational ideas, together with companies, we will prepare a fundamental document for Ukraine and for our sustainability step by step,” Zelensky said.
The president explained how the plan focuses on relying on the country’s internal capabilities to achieve victory. The Ukrainian president has reshaped his proposals several times in these thousands of days of war, but the sustainability plan seems to contain a new element: the awareness that the West may reduce its support for the Ukrainian cause. Kiev, in effect, is trying to reshape what was its “plan for victory” in order to gain the approval of the new American president.
SCHOLZ-PUTIN CALL
There has already been a telephone conversation that could already be history. Olaf Scholz and Vladimir Putin briefly discussed the conflict in Ukraine. Condemning the war in Ukraine, withdrawing troops and starting negotiations with Kiev: these are the demands of the German Chancellor to his Russian counterpart. Scholz called on Putin to “negotiate with Ukraine with the aim of achieving a just and lasting peace, underlining Germany’s unwavering determination to support Ukraine in its defensive battle against Russian aggression for as long as necessary.” It was the first telephone conversation between the two leaders in two years: according to the DPA agency, the conversation lasted an hour.
