Trump’s bet is that by putting together the necessary pressure and offering solutions on the ground that allow him to get away with it, Putin is not that far from accepting a solution. The alternative would be to run into an administration more unpredictable than Joe Biden’s
The Kremlin denies the phone conversation between Putin and Trump, but the president-elect’s spokesman simply replies that “we do not comment on his private conversations.” The son of the future head of the White House, Don Junior, warns that in about thirty days Ukrainian leader Zelensky “will lose his pocket money”, however sources with direct knowledge of the file confirm that the father is actively working to given the end of the war, with a solution acceptable to Kiev, and aims to have a frame of reference by the January 20 oath, to at least open negotiations.
The Washington Post revealed on Sunday that Vladimir and Donald spoke last Thursday, when the Russian leader congratulated him on his election victory. Told by his American counterpart not to provoke an escalation in Ukraine, the two spoke briefly about the disputed territories, and Trump expressed his interest in speaking again soon, perhaps to go into more detail. Yesterday, the spokesman of the Kremlin, Peskov, declared that this information is “pure fiction”. According to him, “there was no conversation. The news is completely false.” Steven Cheung, the incoming White House spokesman, responded: “We do not comment on private calls between President Trump and other world leaders.”
As if to say that the conversation took place, but it was not public, as it had already happened on various occasions in recent years between Putin and Trump. So the news should not have come out and there is no need to comment further. The Reuters agency, however, wrote that it had heard sources confirming it, while the Washington Post explained Moscow’s denial with the embarrassment of admitting it, and above all with the intention not to confirm, that the future American president advised his Russian counterpart to not escalate military operations in Ukraine.
Don junior published a video in which Zelensky is seen with his father and under the note: “You have 38 days left before you lose the cash assistance.” He apparently meant when the Electoral College confirms Trump’s success in the election, but this does not necessarily have any significance for the prospects of the war, first because Don Junior does not necessarily play a decisive role in this file, since the financing of military operations it doesn’t tell the whole story. It is true that Donald has in the past criticized Zelensky as “the biggest salesman in the world” and complained about too much money given to Kiev, calling on Europeans to open their wallets. However, the funds and weapons could come in different ways, less costly to the American taxpayer, without compromising the ambitions of the new head of the White House to end the conflict, while at the same time avoiding going down in history as the leader who gave Europe to Russia despite his predecessors’ Cold War success against the USSR.
The details are being finalized, but the Americans think Putin is interested in a way out. It is true that in recent months it has increased the occupied areas, but it is not on the verge of winning the war. This is evidenced, for example, by the fact that he had to ask North Korea for help, to try to recapture the territories taken from the Ukrainians in the Kursk region, because he cannot afford to move his troops engaged in Donbass and the regions others occupied. The economy is struggling to move forward despite GDP growth, which is actually the result of overheating caused by heavy military spending, and is therefore not sure it is willing to continue the occupation “until it reaches of all objectives”, as Peskov repeats.
Trump’s bet is that by putting together the necessary pressure and offering solutions on the ground that allow him to get away with it, Putin is not that far from accepting a solution. The alternative would be to run into an administration more unpredictable than Joe Biden’s.
