Political observers are cautious about Trump’s expected approach to Kosovo over the next four years. Kosovo is currently in the midst of a campaign for parliamentary elections on February 9; tense relations with Serbia have not improved, and Kosovo’s progress toward membership in Euro-Atlantic structures has similarly stalled.
The 47th President of the United States, Donald Trump, takes office yesterday. After winning the elections on November 5, 2024, Trump returns to the White House, where he also served in the period 2017-2021. During his first term, Trump witnessed the signing of an agreement to normalize economic relations between Kosovo and Serbia, on September 4, 2020. Among the main points of this agreement that were fully implemented was the mutual recognition between Kosovo and Israel. Although many other points remain unimplemented and the parties blame each other for this, Trump described it as a “great progress” in relations between the two countries. At the time, he said that he was “proud of the two leaders” – the then Prime Minister of Kosovo, Avdullah Hoti, and the President of Serbia, Aleksandar Vučić.
Richard Grenell, then the US special envoy for the Kosovo-Serbia dialogue, played a key role in securing this agreement. For this achievement, he was awarded the National Security Medal by Trump in December 2020. In addition to him, there were other officials from the first Trump administration who supported ideas for resolving the disputes between Kosovo and Serbia.
One of them was John Bolton, then the White House national security adviser, who did not rule out territorial adjustments between the two countries as a possibility. “We will not be an obstacle and I do not think anyone in Europe will stand in the way if both sides in the conflict reach a satisfactory agreement,” Bolton said in August 2018. In the new administration, Trump chose Republican Mike Waltz as national security adviser. None of his statements on Kosovo are public, but Trump’s pick for new Secretary of State, Marco Rubio, has had the Balkan region in his sights several times throughout his career. In 2022, he joined a group of senators who sent a letter to then-US President Joe Biden encouraging him to keep the Balkans in his sights.
“The Balkans is a vulnerable area of Europe and, although Ukraine should have our immediate attention, we cannot lose sight of this Region, where NATO has long played an important role in maintaining peace.” , that letter said.
Political observers are cautious about Trump’s expected approach to Kosovo over the next four years. Kosovo is currently in the midst of a campaign for the February 9 parliamentary elections; tense relations with Serbia have not improved, and Kosovo’s progress toward membership in Euro-Atlantic structures has similarly stalled. Former US diplomat Cameron Munter said in an earlier interview with Radio Free Europe that Trump’s return to the White House will inevitably force a change in strategy in the dialogue between Kosovo and Serbia, since, according to him, Trump wants an agreement. “His goal is not to bring Serbs and Kosovars into the European Union. His goal is to do what is best for the United States, to make America great again,” said Munter, the former US ambassador to Serbia.
Frank Wisner, former US envoy for the status of Kosovo, previously told Radio Free Europe that he does not rule out the possibility that Trump might explore the partition of Kosovo as a quick solution to its ongoing conflict with Serbia.
“If he sees a deal with [Serbian President Aleksandar] Vucic that suits him, he will not wait for Kosovo to comply. He will be transactional, looking for a deal, looking for a breakthrough, looking for something that makes him look good. Kosovo needs to be nimble, make sure it has strong support from the Europeans, but its journey may be difficult,” Wisner said.
For David Kanin, a professor of European Studies at Johns Hopkins University in Washington, Trump’s first administration was pro-Serb, and Serbian officials felt respected by him. “The losers, as always, are America’s clients: Bosniaks and Kosovars. But Trump is not the only one to blame for this. We have been forcing Bosniaks and Kosovars to make concessions to their opponents for 30 years – since the Dayton Agreement,” Kanin said, adding that Trump, however, is unpredictable. Kosovo’s President, Vjosa Osmani, and Prime Minister Albin Kurti congratulated Trump on his victory, describing the US as an important ally, friend and partner of Kosovo. Ten days before Trump took office, Osmani announced that Kosovo and the US would soon finalize an agreement for strategic dialogue, with the aim of advancing cooperation in various fields.
