It is estimated that the number of deaths is now three times higher than the number of births, while the Ministry of Social Policies recorded the lowest birth rate in its history, with 0.9 children per woman. Under such circumstances, writes Le Monde, the population is expected to reach 25 million by 2050 and continue to fall to 15 million by 2100.
Ukraine is depopulating. And the longer the war drags on, the emptier it becomes. The challenge of reversing negative demographic trends has reached such proportions that it is now considered a key security issue, writes “Le Monde”. Millions of people have sought refuge abroad or live under the control of the Russian boot in the occupied territories. Tens of thousands of Ukrainians are listed as missing, killed in fighting and bombing. The country had a population of about 41 million before the invasion, and by the end of 2024, approximately 36 million remained, including five million people in the 20 percent of the territory under Russian military occupation. These are official statistics. The real figures are probably even lower.
THE EVACUATION OF UKRAINE
It is estimated that the number of deaths is now three times higher than the number of births, while the Ministry of Social Policy recorded the lowest birth rate in its history, with 0.9 children per woman. In such circumstances, writes Le Monde, the population is expected to reach 25 million by 2050 and continue to fall to 15 million by 2100, according to Olga Duhnič, director of the department responsible for demography and migration at the Ukrainian organization Frontier Institute.
Although emigration, mainly for socio-economic reasons, has not been considered a problem since independence in 1991 (when Ukraine had a population of 52 million), the severity of the crisis caused by the Russian invasion now poses a key challenge to the country’s future, both for the economy and its defense capabilities. Authorities are trying to solve the problem, focusing mainly on the return of refugees.
PUTIN’S GOAL
Ukrainian Prime Minister Denis Shmyhal also recommended that Ukrainian women have at least three children. However, this proposal seems quite disconnected from reality, as encouraging women to have more children at a time when security is not guaranteed and many of them are already traumatized by the loss of their partners seems at least insensitive. “One of Russia’s goals is to depopulate Ukraine,” said opposition lawmaker Mykola Kniazhitski. “And as long as the war continues, the population will continue to decline.”
Although the authorities have not yet addressed the issue publicly, many experts already believe that Ukraine will not be able to rebuild the country without foreign labor, said Duhnič: “When we talk about the future of Ukraine and Ukrainians, it is certain that we will have to go through a period of immigration. And we must ask ourselves how these people will live here, how they will integrate into our society and how they will assimilate its values. We owe it to ourselves, because we have a very special task, not only to develop the economy, but also to preserve our sovereignty.”
ECONOMIC CONSEQUENCES
Companies in the country are already suffering from a shortage of workers in certain sectors, which has been further exacerbated by the mobilization of hundreds of thousands of men into the army. But the shortage will be felt even more after the war, when the country will need to revive the economy, according to Oleksiy Chernyshov, the Minister of National Unity. To achieve the goal of “doubling Ukraine’s GDP in the next ten years,” the country would need “another four million people on the labor market.” This means that “we need to encourage Ukrainians to see Ukraine as their homeland again,” Chernyshov said during a meeting with Le Monde journalists.
This is the mission of his ministry, established late last year, aimed at solving demographic problems and reaching out to refugees in order to encourage them to return. “Everything will ultimately depend on the outcome of the war,” Chernyshov summed up matter-of-factly. Refugees can be divided into three categories, he explained. There are 30 percent of Ukrainians who are ready to return to Ukraine at the end of the war, no matter what, and 30 percent who are sure they will not return.
