The rapid transformation of American policy comes after years of isolating Russia over its invasion of Ukraine and inevitably raises the question: could Kosovo face a similar fate in its dispute with Serbia? Some analysts say no, but at the same time suggest that Kosovo should become “more obedient.”
Since Russia launched its full-scale invasion of Ukraine, the United States has been Kiev’s main supporter — both militarily and diplomatically. But today, three years later, US President Donald Trump sounds more sympathetic to Russia than to Ukraine. During a meeting at the White House on February 28, Trump and his deputy, JD Vance, had a tense exchange of words with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, interrupting each other several times. Trump accused him of “gambling with the lives of millions of people” and “with World War III” and told him that he “can come back when he’s ready for peace.” The shift in US policy did not begin there, but at least two weeks ago.
“Today I heard: Oh, we weren’t invited. You were there for three years. You should have never started it. You could have made a deal,” Trump said on February 18. With these unexpected comments, he appeared to blame Ukraine for the Russian invasion and suggested that the country could have “made a deal” to avoid war. Ukraine, however, was invaded by its neighbor in February 2022, and the ongoing conflict has become the deadliest in Europe since World War II.
Trump, also in a post on social media, used harsh language to describe the Ukrainian president. He said that Zelensky “refuses to hold elections” and called him a “dictator.” According to him, the Ukrainian president “must act quickly,” or “will be left without a state.” Trump appears to be acting to fulfill his promise to end the war in Ukraine as soon as possible. He initially held a phone call with Russian President Vladimir Putin, while, a few days later, on February 18, American and Russian delegations met in Saudi Arabia to begin talks on the specifics. This was the first direct contact between the parties since Russia launched a full-scale invasion of Ukraine on February 24, 2022, and a sudden change in American policy.
It has surprised both Ukraine and traditional US allies in Europe, which are currently sidelined from the negotiations. But it has also raised questions for other countries that depend on US support, including Kosovo.
With Serbia refusing to recognize its independence and dialogue between them blocked for years, could the US, under Trump, pursue a similar approach to the Kosovo issue? In a letter that the US president sent to Kosovo’s President, Vjosa Osmani, on the 17th anniversary of Kosovo’s independence on February 17, he was quoted as saying that the US “will continue to work with Kosovo to strengthen democratic institutions and promote economic growth.” He also pledged that ties between the two countries would expand. Retired professor of International Relations, Alon Ben-Meir, says that in this situation, the Trump administration may, however, favor Serbia – whether because of closer ties with Serbian President Aleksandar Vučić, the business interests of Trump’s son-in-law, Jared Kushner, in Serbia, or the influence of his envoy for special missions, Richard Grenell, with his constant criticism of the government of Kosovo Prime Minister Albin Kurti.
“But this does not mean that Trump will abandon Kosovo,” says Bel-Meir, because “he knows that to maintain stability in the Balkans, he needs to establish some kind of balance.” “And, in this case, the EU is also directly involved. It has troops in Kosovo and he cannot bypass it on this issue,” the American professor tells Radio Free Europe’s Expose program.
Richard Caplan, professor of international relations at the University of Oxford, says that Kosovo has historically been under pressure from outside parties, but that it has had a place at the table. According to him, Kosovars themselves can draw parallels with Ukrainians, but the US has lower interests in the Kosovo-Serbia dispute and this “reduces the likelihood that Trump will abandon Kosovo, as he did with Ukraine”. “Given that some of Trump’s actions are described as transactional, he may try to create relations with Kosovo and Serbia – ones that respond more to US interests, rather than the interests of the European community or the Western Balkans”, says Caplan. During his first term as president, in the period 2017-2021, Trump witnessed the signing of an agreement between Kosovo and Serbia to normalize economic relations.
Very little of this document was implemented on the ground, but Trump said he was “proud of the two leaders” – the then-Prime Minister of Kosovo, Avdullah Hoti, and the President of Serbia, Aleksandar Vučić.
This year, in his letter to the president of Kosovo on the occasion of the 17th anniversary of independence, Trump did not mention the dialogue on the normalization of relations between Pristina and Belgrade. Similarly, he did not mention it in his letter to the president of Serbia, on the occasion of Statehood Day, also in February. In both letters, he mainly emphasized the importance of cooperation. Despite this, Professor Ben-Meir expects Kosovo to face increased pressure from the US to grant the Serbian community more autonomy – something that Serbia has also insisted on for years. Failure to do so would have consequences, says Ben-Meir, and lists a few: “The United States could impose sanctions, it could withhold economic assistance from Kosovo, it could pressure the EU not to advance Kosovo’s integration into its community.”
“So the United States can exert considerable pressure, if they want to. That’s why I think you can’t ignore what the US wants,” Ben-Meir says.
He adds that Vučić’s ties to Russia could allow him to influence US policy as well. Meanwhile, organizing a possible meeting between Trump and Putin in Belgrade – which has been rumored before – would only further strengthen Serbia’s position. To counter all this, Ben-Meir says that Kosovo must show flexibility, without compromising its independence. “The Association of Serb-majority municipalities should be formed. If you don’t want territorial exchanges, make the Association and cooperate with Serbia, because Serbia has a great interest in those municipalities, since they are inhabited by Serbs. Therefore, flexibility should be shown in this regard,” says Ben-Meir. Professor Caplan says that Trump is only in his second month in office and that his foreign policy is still taking shape. But he warns that his behavior with Ukraine should serve as a signal for the approach to other unresolved conflicts, and keep leaders at least vigilant.
“I’m sure Ukrainians feel they’ve been sold out in many ways. So there are legitimate concerns that Trump might compromise on principles when they serve his own narrow interests, the interests of the United States,” Caplan says. Such an apparent approach has already alarmed traditional U.S. allies in Europe. Germany’s incoming chancellor, Friedrich Merz, has said the continent needs to strengthen its security as quickly as possible in order to “become independent” of the United States.
European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen said the EU would continue to work with Ukraine “for a just and lasting peace.” But, unlike them, the US’s historical opponents sound more sympathetic to Trump’s behavior and rhetoric. “If you had told me just three months ago that these would be the words of the American president, I would have laughed out loud,” wrote Dmitry Medvedev, deputy chairman of the Russian Security Council, in a post on X, commenting on Trump’s statement that “Zelensky is a dictator.” While more meetings between the US and Russia on Ukraine are being announced, analysts do not expect the dispute between Kosovo and Serbia to be high on Trump’s agenda – especially not anytime soon.
Kosovo President Vjosa Osmani, who plays a leading role in the country’s foreign policy, has said she aims to strengthen cooperation with the Trump administration, especially in the areas of defense and strategic investments. Similarly, Kosovo Prime Minister Albin Kurti, when congratulating Trump on his election victory, said he looks forward to working with him for the benefit of progress and peace.
Radio Free Europe asked the Ministry of Foreign Affairs and Diaspora in Kosovo about its lobbying activities in the US, but the response it received stated that “lobbying contracts, in accordance with applicable laws, remain confidential.” Analysts say that navigating this uncertain landscape undoubtedly requires diplomatic skills. And, if history is any guide, small allies often have to adapt, or learn to live with the decisions that others make for them. (RFE)
