A large-scale attack on Iran could ignite the entire Region. It is unclear whether talks between the US and Iran over the Iranian nuclear program can continue.
To call the Middle East a powder keg seems to be an understatement. It is precisely in this Region that Israel under Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has now thrown an explosive spark. With the large-scale attack on 100 targets in Iran, justified as a “preemptive strike” against the possible development of Iranian nuclear weapons. Israel’s attacks, including on residential areas in Tehran, will continue for several days, according to Prime Minister Netanyahu.
The consequences in the Region and beyond are unpredictable. However, some developments are already taking shape: US-brokered talks on Iran’s nuclear program in Oman were canceled by the Iranian side. The Israeli attack came two days before the next round of talks.
US President Donald Trump had asked the Israeli government not to disrupt the talks with any attack. And just before Israeli missiles hit Tehran, Trump posted a message that he hoped for the continuation of the talks. That Netanyahu does not consider talks on the nuclear program is also evidenced by the assassination during the attacks of Ali Shamchani. Shamchani had been hired by religious leader Ali Khamenei to head the committee for talks with the US on the nuclear program.
Among the open questions is whether Iran will also target US targets in its retaliatory strikes. The US is considered Israel’s most important military backer, which enables such large-scale attacks. Tehran has repeatedly threatened in the past with retaliatory attacks on US bases in the Middle East. As a result, the US began evacuating non-essential US personnel and family members from these bases a few days ago. There are many potential targets: Between Egypt and the United Arab Emirates, the US has eight permanent bases and several mobile military bases, in which about 50.000 soldiers are stationed.
Iran has no interest in a military confrontation with the US, but whether Tehran will retaliate depends on how and whether the US administration will distance itself from the Israeli attacks. Secretary of State Marco Rubio swears in a post that the US is in no way participating in Israel’s actions. He also warns that US targets should not be targeted in any way.
In the Middle East in general, nervousness is high. Countries in the Region have sharply criticized Israel’s attack – including Saudi Arabia, which until recently was a staunch opponent of Iran. The Abraham Accords established during Donald Trump’s first presidential term for rapprochement between Israel and the Arab world – are now frozen. Efforts for rapprochement suffered a setback during Israel’s fighting in Gaza.
Saudi Arabia and Iran, meanwhile, after years of bitter hostilities, had begun to draw closer with the mediation of China. Relations between the two countries had intensified, and both countries were even aiming for military cooperation and were expected to organize a joint exercise. The latest sign of rapprochement was the visit of Saudi Defense Minister Khalid bin Salman to Tehran. There, Mohammed bin Salman’s brother also had a meeting with the religious leader.
Saudi Arabia and other countries in the Region do not want to get involved in the conflict between Israel and Iran in any way, especially if the United States is also involved. Iran, faced with a superior opponent, may also pursue the course of an asymmetric war. Such actions include disrupting oil production and transportation. In 2019, drone attacks by Yemeni Houthi militias cut off half of Saudi oil production. In the years that followed, Saudi oil facilities have also been repeatedly targeted by attacks from Yemen. Therefore, it is not surprising that oil prices have increased significantly in the wake of the Israeli attacks.
It is unclear whether Israel will achieve its stated goal of preventing Iran from building a nuclear bomb with the attack. Most experts still doubt that Iran’s nuclear program can be destroyed militarily. The attacks could even have the opposite effect, encouraging Iran to build a nuclear bomb right now. But such an action would lead to a nuclear arms race in the Middle East. And no one would be interested in that. (DW)
