The threat landscape is well-spread around the world. Putin, Trump, Xi, but also Macron and Starmer (and others around the world, from Pakistan to India to Iran) are the “red button masters” who, at the top of the chain of command, can trigger nuclear escalation and bring terror to our homes.
There are more than 12,000 nuclear warheads in the world (a few hundred are enough to destroy the world and make it uninhabitable). The record is held by Russia (about 5,500) and the United States (5,300). In Europe: France (290) and Great Britain (225) have their own nuclear weapons, while NATO’s approximately 100 nuclear warheads are distributed among Italy (40), Turkey, Germany, Belgium and the Netherlands (Greece has managed to remove nuclear weapons from its territory). Then we must count the approximately 600 nuclear warheads of China, 170 of Pakistan, 180 of India, 90 of Israel and 45 of North Korea (the other countries are not officially listed as having any, but the Iran dossier).
From these figures it is clear that we live in constant nuclear danger, but we must admit, we often forget this. Narrowing down the scope, we can see how many nuclear devices there are in Italy and where they are located (based on data provided by NATO). The approximately 40 tactical nuclear warheads (launched bombs) B61 model 3 and 4 present in Italy are launched from F-16 aircraft (or similar aircraft). They are located at the bases of Aviano and Ghedi. These are warheads with a power of tens of kilotons, slightly more destructive than those dropped on Hiroshima and Nagasaki in 1945, which caused over 200 thousand deaths in a few seconds (this year marks the 80th anniversary).
“These devices – explains Francesco Forti, national secretary of the Union of Scientists for Disarmament and professor of Physics at the University of Pisa and at the National Institute of Nuclear Physics – can be activated with a single key, that is, they can only be launched from American aircraft, or with a double key, that is, they can be loaded on Italian aircraft”. The new B61-12 warheads that can only be launched from the F35, which we are buying in large quantities. They have recently arrived at Italian bases. This entire Italian arsenal is part of the NATO nuclear shield, but is managed directly by American commands”, he said.
Let’s take the case (an event that was unthinkable until a few years ago, but is now considered possible) that NATO changes from within: for example, that the US decides to no longer be the major sponsor of security in Europe and withdraws its nuclear warheads from the old continent!
“In this case, Macron could decide to extend his shield to the whole of Europe, a worrying possibility because in any case it would be a new nuclear race. In fact, today most of the French warheads are mounted on submarines: that is, they are not intercontinental weapons. Paris has few launch bases on land and its current arsenal has a mainly preventive function. If it were to expand to defend Europe, rearmament towards more aggressive weapons would be inevitable,” he continued. For us Europeans, the fate of NATO remains fundamental, at least for the moment: it is the Atlantic Alliance that guarantees us the “umbrella” against the nuclear risk.
“Of course, this is the situation so far. And for the moment, France, the only nuclear power with Great Britain on the continent, is looking only at its own security – explains Antonio Missiroli, senior advisor at ISPI and professor at Johns Hopkins University in Bologna – but it is clear that if other EU countries were involved, it would be in Paris’s interest to intervene… following the idea launched by the German Merz to develop a deterrence strategy also with London and Berlin. Of course, the relocation of tactical weapons to Belarus, announced by Moscow, would give more weight to Paris’ idea of relocating French nuclear warheads to Poland”.
The threat landscape is well-distributed around the world. Putin, Trump, Xi, but also Macron and Starmer (and others around the world, from Pakistan to India to Iran) are the “red button masters” who, at the top of the chain of command, can trigger nuclear escalation and bring terror to our homes.
“China is still lagging behind,” Missiroli continues, “but it is intensively developing its nuclear arsenal. However, it must be said that Beijing is outside any international agreement on nuclear weapons and is therefore free to do whatever it wants. The “New Start”, the only agreement on the limitation of nuclear warheads still in force, concerns only the US and Russia: it expires next year and it is hoped that it will be renewed”. Since the Hiroshima bomb (August 6, 1945, so this year marks 80 years since that tragedy), many political crises have been limited to the nuclear risk. But today we are waking up from a long sleep that lasted at least 40 years, during which we were quite sure (at least we Westerners) that the path to nuclear disarmament would continue with confidence. Years of peace put in a drawer and ready to dust off those plans for the use of nuclear arsenals that in reality are always updated. Where should we look then? Where could the greatest danger come from?
“A taboo has fallen – concludes Forti – and now clear threats of the use of nuclear weapons have been declared (Putin’s case)”. In short, the risk of escalation is very real. Take the case of the Cuban Missile Crisis of 1962: both Kennedy and Khrushchev were smart politicians and, despite very high tension, they reached an agreement. Politicians today are not like that: it seems that our leaders are trying to increase tension, not reduce it. Do they want to export the logic of tariffs to the nuclear sphere? “The end of the world is very close”.
“It must be said – Missiroli concludes – that the entry into play of hypersonic missiles has changed the scenario: previously, with conventional missiles, up to an hour or more could pass from the alarm of a warhead in flight to the possible impact. In short, there was time to assess and, if necessary, to react. Now we are talking about a few minutes, if not seconds: defense strategies have been completely revolutionized.”
