RFE/RL sources in Brussels say that real success in the dialogue will depend on the pressure and energy that the main states of the European bloc, especially Germany and France, will spend on the dialogue. But they are now facing internal political crises and, consequently, Sorensen will not have the political power behind him that he would perhaps like.
For the first time in five years, the negotiations between Kosovo and Serbia will not be mediated by Miroslav Lajcak. The European Union has decided that its new envoy for the dialogue will be Peter Sorensen. Officially, he starts work on February 1, and will deal only with the dialogue between the two neighboring countries, and not with Regional issues in the Balkans, like his predecessor. Since Sorensen’s name began to be mentioned in the media, weeks ago, the atmosphere for him has been positive. One of the most frequent arguments has been that the 57-year-old knows the Region. And, indeed, that is the case. A diplomat for many years, he was engaged in Kosovo, within the framework of the United Nations Mission (UNMIK), as well as in other roles, in Serbia, North Macedonia and Bosnia and Herzegovina.
As political experts say, he does not need to be informed in advance about the people or historical facts of the Region, because he has already had the opportunity to create an up-close overview.
Another argument that has been cited as positive by officials in Pristina is that he is from Denmark, a country that recognizes Kosovo’s statehood, and that he will have equal access to the dialogue. The origin of a mediator has become a very important element, since Lajcak took that position, while that of the EU’s chief diplomat has been held by Josep Borrell. Being one from Slovakia, the other from Spain, both countries that do not recognize Kosovo’s statehood, a dark shadow has constantly followed them. From ordinary Kosovo citizens to the country’s president, Vjosa Osmani, the pair have been accused of bias and, on occasion, of siding with Serbia. Both have repeatedly denied the accusations.
This problem will not exist now. However, the period in which Sorensen begins work is considered problematic. Given the elections in Kosovo, and the political uncertainties in Serbia – following the resignation of the prime minister there – political experts expect little progress, especially in the first six months of the Dane’s mandate.
Adnan Qerimagic, an analyst at the European Stability Initiative, has full confidence in Sorensen’s commitment to doing his job, but that alone is not enough. “His success in fulfilling his mandate will depend on his approach, on the context in Kosovo and Serbia. But most importantly, what the EU can offer to strengthen his mandate,” he tells Radio Free Europe. Slovenia’s Foreign Minister Tanja Fajon said days ago that Sorensen’s election sends a message that dialogue remains high on the European bloc’s agenda.
THE ROLE OF GERMANY AND FRANCE
So, what does the EU have to offer the two countries, currently? Little, to say the least. “The enlargement process is blocked. The EU is not willing to unblock it now. Kosovo’s European path is not being treated seriously. Without having the main ingredients, any individual in that position would have an extremely difficult task to accomplish,” Qerimagic estimates, also mentioning Serbia’s setbacks in European integration. Radio Free Europe sources in Brussels claim that real success in the dialogue will depend on the pressure and energy that the main states of the European bloc will spend on the dialogue, especially Germany and France. But they are now facing internal political crises and, consequently, Sorensen will not have the political power behind him that he would perhaps like.
However, according to these voices, one thing is certain: There will be no going back on the obligations that both Kosovo and Serbia have made, and they will have to work to implement the previous agreements. The agreement reached in 2023 in Brussels to normalize relations, and an annex for its implementation, are considered key to the way forward. Some blame Lajcak for failing to convince the parties to sign it, while they describe his mandate as a mediator more as one of crisis management.
AMERICAN INVOLVEMENT
Another determinant of success in the dialogue has to do with American involvement. The United States envoy for the Western Balkans has often offered support for this process. This position is currently held by Alexander Kasanoff. In public statements, he has called on both sides to fulfill all the commitments they have undertaken. Their obligations date back years. The parties have been negotiating since 2011 and have reached a number of agreements, but not all of them have been implemented. The EU often reminds both sides that progress in the dialogue process is linked to their path towards Euro-Atlantic integration. (RFE)
