Formed in reaction to eurozone policies in 2013, the AfD was used to being on the fringes of German politics, in a country scarred by its Nazi past where any far-right party is treated with caution. It has now doubled its support compared to the last election held in 2021, when it won just 10.3% of the vote.
(CNN) The political system in Germany is designed to exclude radical forces. However, the country is waking up to a new political reality that is oriented towards the right, with the Alternative for Germany (AfD) party now established in German politics.
The country’s conservative politicians, as polls predicted, won the most votes in Sunday’s federal elections and will try to form a new government, while the AfD came in second. Still, second place is an extraordinary result for a party that, despite not being part of the government formula, will still enjoy an expansion of influence.
The party has doubled its support since the last election held in 2021, when it won just 10.3% of the vote. It is now the first far-right party in post-World War II German history to achieve such widespread success with the German public, and has also increased its number of seats in the German Parliament (Bundestag).
The AfD won a large number of votes in eastern Germany, long its stronghold. But it has also secured significant support in the western part of the country, including the industrial city of Gelsenkirchen, which is suffering from a stagnant economy and high unemployment, and Kaiserslautern, which is surrounded by several American military bases, including Ramstein Air Base.
“We have never been so strong – we are the second largest force,” AfD leader Alice Weidel said in her address to party supporters in Berlin, shortly after the exit poll results were released on Sunday evening.
The mood at AfD headquarters was euphoric after the exit poll results were released, with people celebrating and waving German flags everywhere.
As for the leader of the Christian Democratic Union (CDU), Friedrich Merz, who will most likely be Germany’s next chancellor, he did not spare himself with his criticism of the “interference” of the United States of America in the country’s election campaign – which was characterized by speeches and meetings of senior figures from the Trump administration with AfD leaders.
These interventions are “no less dramatic and drastic than the interventions we have seen from Moscow,” Merz said.
Formed in reaction against Eurozone policies in 2013, the AfD was accustomed to being on the periphery of German politics, in a country scarred by its Nazi past, where any far-right party has been treated with caution.
The AfD won its first seats in the German parliament in 2017, while struggling to gain access to traditional German media due to its harsh anti-immigration and anti-Islam rhetoric. This election marks the first time the party has fielded a candidate for chancellor.
The party has called for “remigration” – the mass expulsion of immigrants. The controversial policy has drawn parallels with the Nazi period. The AfD is officially suspected of right-wing extremism by German authorities and its cells have been under state surveillance.
All that seems to have changed. The AfD is now the largest opposition party in Germany, making it a political force that cannot be ignored. This has sparked a wide-ranging debate in Germany, forcing its main rivals to admit that they need to do more on critical issues if they want to retain their votes.
Their rise reflects the current situation in Europe, where the bloc of far-right parties has gained ground. As in the Netherlands, France or Austria, such parties cannot be ignored or easily dismissed when they have won a significant number of votes – or in the case of Italy, by leading the country.
A stronger voice in parliament means that “they (the AfD) are able to put pressure on the majority parties from a very powerful position,” said Gemma Loomes, professor of comparative politics at Keele University.
“Increasing support will encourage the party to speak out, even more aggressively, on issues that matter most to them but that the mainstream parties are reluctant to address,” Loomes added.
This whole situation begs the question: Can the so-called “firewall” – the unwritten agreement between Germany’s traditional parties to come together to keep the AfD out of power – last?
In a show of confidence, the leader of the AfD’s youth wing, Hannes Gnaucke, told CNN on election day that he was “certain” the “firewall” would end after the vote count on Sunday.
Merz’s controversial decision to push through the immigration law with the help of the AfD in January could be an early indication of how he plans to exercise his position as chancellor.
According to Armida van Rij, senior researcher at the think tank Chatham House, the cooperation between Merz and the AfD on immigration law was “a major change in German politics and a major break with the way things were done before, when cooperation with the AfD was an absolute ban.”
She believes there are “cracks” in the “firewall.”
“In the next 5, 10, or 15 years the wall will no longer be there,” she speculated, perhaps at the regional level first and then at the national level.
“For centrist parties, the real question is how to address the real grievances of voters and how to do so in a way that does not reinforce the far right,” she added.
Meanwhile, AfD politicians already have their focus on the next elections in 2029 – when they are determined that the “wall” will no longer exist.
“I am convinced that the so-called ‘firewall’ will cease to exist after these elections,” AfD youth wing leader Hannes Gnauck told CNN on Sunday evening.
“There will be a CDU after Friedrich Merz, and this CDU must work together with the AfD,” he added.
AfD leader Alice Weidel also told reporters in Berlin on Monday morning that “Merz has decided to maintain his blocking stance towards the AfD. We consider this blockade to be anti-democratic. You cannot exclude millions of voters at once.”
Merz’s right turn full of danger
Merzi now faces a tightrope walk as he tries to form a new government.
The CDU has always been a central party in post-war Germany and preceded the reunification of East Germany and West Germany.
However, everything has changed since the party was in power.
No longer associated with the liberal, “open door” policy that was popularized during the Angela Merkel era, Merzi has vowed to return the party to its conservative roots as part of an effort to curb the far right.
However, Merz’s promise to return the CDU to the right is not without risks. This move risks strengthening the AfD, isolating the CDU’s centrist voter base.
According to Loomes, this is a “decision fraught with risk.”
“The AfD has positioned itself as the only party that is willing to talk about immigration and propose radical actions that confront the perceived problem,” she said.
“If the CDU positions itself in this space, it risks being perceived as a less authentic version of the AfD. Voters are convinced that the AfD is deeply concerned about restricting immigration; they are less convinced that this is a genuine priority for the CDU,” Loomes added.
Merz’s new government will likely include another centrist party, Scholz’s Social Democrats (SPD), which led the country’s previous coalition and came in third place after Sunday’s election.
Although coalition-building may prove difficult, with the two parties likely to clash on key issues, particularly in the area of foreign policy, there is no guarantee that the new government will not be as unstable and incapable of governing as the previous coalition.
Transatlantic spirit
While Germany has long had a disdain for far-right parties not seen in its European neighbors, some Germans believe the time has come to break old taboos.
And the AfD’s powerful transatlantic partner is only contributing to this view.
American billionaire Elon Musk addressed the crowds during a surprise appearance at the AfD election campaign in January. “There is too much focus on the guilt of the past and we need to move beyond that,” he said, in a speech that reflected the AfD’s views, which was met with widespread applause.
Meanwhile, in his scathing speech at the Munich Security Conference, US Vice President JD Vance told European leaders that there is “no room for firewalls” in democracy, figuratively nodding in support of the AfD.
Merz will have to face a Trump administration that has praised his main political rival and which, it seems, is severing long-standing security ties between the US and Europe.
A strong government in Berlin and a united Europe now seem more important than ever. The continent is looking for new leadership, which as such must confront a Trump who is leading peace talks on Ukraine without their involvement at the table.
For Merzi, Europe’s independence from America is the primary concern. “My absolute priority is to strengthen Europe as quickly as possible, step by step, we can achieve complete independence from the US,” Merzi declared on Sunday evening.
While Germany’s mainstream has thwarted a radical far-right government, Merz’s challenges have only just begun.
