On the same day that Serbia’s president announced the decision to ban ammunition exports, the Russian Foreign Intelligence Service (SVR) said that ammunition exports from Serbia to Ukraine are increasing, despite pressure from Moscow.
Serbia has completely banned the export of ammunition, amid tensions between Israel and Iran and increased criticism from Russia over Ukraine. Asked whether by exporting ammunition to Israel, Serbia was choosing sides in the Israeli-Iranian conflict, President Aleksandar Vučić replied: “Right now, we are not exporting anything.” “We have stopped everything. Special decisions need to be made to allow any exports,” he said after a meeting of the collegium of the Chief of the General Staff of the Serbian Army on June 23. A day later, Vučić said that, in the future, only the National Security Council would decide on the export of ammunition from Serbia. He said that a “black, gray and white list” of countries regarding the export of Serbian ammunition would be created.
About ten days earlier and before Israel’s attack on Iran, Vučić said that Serbia is the only country in Europe that does business with Israel in the field of military ammunition.
Vučić sees the military industry as an opportunity to generate income and often speaks proudly of its capabilities and achievements. There are several factories in Serbia that produce weapons and military equipment. Now, the Serbian authorities are following the same strategy as in the summer of 2023, when they banned arms exports for a month. Referring to that moment, Serbian military analyst Aleksandar Radić tells Radio Free Europe that it is “a stance in response to two serious media challenges.” One, he says, is the export of Serbian ammunition to Israel, and the other has to do with ammunition for Ukraine.
“And, now, the media coverage of this is that theatrical stance… exports have been suspended, so now you see, it doesn’t matter what the financial consequences will be, but we will be principled,” says Radiq.
ON ONE SIDE IRAN, ON THE OTHER SIDE RUSSIA
Explaining Serbia’s position, Vučić said that “one thing” is that Serbia allowed the export of ammunition to Israel after the attack on October 7, 2023. “But today, the situation is different,” he said. In October 2023, Israel launched a military offensive in Gaza, which resulted in tens of thousands of people being killed. Previously, Israel was attacked by Hamas – a group declared a terrorist by the US and other powers – which killed about 1.200 people and took over 250 hostages. A new conflict then erupted on June 13, when Israel attacked Iran to prevent it from, as it claimed, creating nuclear weapons. On June 22, the United States also became involved, attacking Iran’s nuclear facilities.
On the same day that the Serbian president announced the decision to ban ammunition exports, the Russian Foreign Intelligence Service (SVR) said that ammunition exports from Serbia to Ukraine are increasing, despite pressure from Moscow.
The Russian service claimed that this export is increasing through the use of indirect routes – that is, through intermediaries. The report states that ammunition produced at military enterprises in Serbia, mainly for heavy long-range systems, is sent to NATO countries in the form of complete parts for assembly. “This allows Kiev to formally receive products of the military industry, which are no longer Serbian, but are assembled at arms factories in Western countries. Assembly and filling of ammunition are mainly carried out in the Czech Republic and Bulgaria,” the SVR said. On May 28, the service also accused Serbia of continuing to send ammunition to Ukraine, “despite its officially declared neutrality.”
Serbia supports Ukraine’s territorial integrity, but refuses to impose sanctions on Russia over its invasion of its neighbor. Official Belgrade has repeatedly denied that Serbia exports weapons directly to Ukraine or Russia. However, it admits that it cannot control where those weapons end up, as they are sold to third countries. Vučić also referred to this when announcing the decision to suspend ammunition exports. “Since we have seen that ammunition is appearing in Ukraine – from both sides, and both are complaining… I can only intervene in one way: to say that for a period of time, all ammunition should remain only in our barracks,” he said.
PROFIT, LatestLY, IN SECONDARY PLACE
Maja Bjeloš, from the non-governmental Belgrade Center for Security Policy, points out to Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty that Belgrade’s decision to halt the export of ammunition came immediately after an official statement from Iran. The Iranian military warned on June 21 that any shipment of military aid to Israel would be considered participation in aggression against Iran and would become a legitimate target. Bjeloš says that while Western countries see the delivery of Serbian ammunition to Ukraine via third countries as positive, Russia is putting increasing pressure on Serbia to stop this practice.
“… to remind the Serbian leadership that such an action represents an indirect attack on Russia,” says Bjellosh.
Foreign media have reported several times in recent years that Serbian weapons and ammunition, through third countries, end up in the hands of Ukrainian soldiers. Thus, on June 22, 2024, the British newspaper Financial Times wrote that Serbia has indirectly exported, through other countries, ammunition worth 800 million euros to Ukraine, since Russia began its full-scale invasion in February 2022. At that time, Vučić confirmed to the newspaper that the information about the value of the ammunition is largely accurate. “Yes, we export our ammunition. We cannot export to Ukraine or Russia, but we have many contracts with the Americans, the Spaniards, the Czechs and others. What they do with it is their business,” he told the Financial Times.
Foreign officials have repeatedly thanked Serbia for its assistance to Ukraine. Among them, in July 2024, was then-US Assistant Secretary of State for European and Eurasian Affairs James O’Brien. At the time, he said that Serbia, “by making its weapons available, is helping Ukraine uphold a fundamental principle of international law.”
RADIĆ: SUSPENSION OF EXPORTS IS NOT COMMON PRACTICE
Serbia’s Defense Ministry did not respond to Radio Free Europe’s questions about when the export ban has been in effect and how long it will last. Exact data on what weapons and military equipment Serbia exports to Israel and other countries, as well as in what quantities, are not publicly available. The Ministry of Internal and Foreign Trade in Serbia has not published annual reports on its official website on export permits issued in recent years. Military analyst Radić says that the ban on exports is not recognized as a practice.
“We saw this in 2023, when such a decision was made in an unusual way and showed how the Serbian system works, where one person, the president of the country, says ‘now we will not export’,” Radic said.
He says that at that time, the implementation of export permits that had been granted previously was stopped, but it was not said that “there would be nothing from the signed contracts”. “This may have caused greater expenses and greater problems for some companies, but it did not affect the supply of domestic deposits”, says Radić. In 2023, the Serbian government banned the export of weapons, arguing that Serbia’s national interest was “endangered to the highest degree”, but did not provide further details. Permits for the export of weapons and military equipment are issued by the Ministry of Internal and Foreign Trade. The consent of the Ministries of Foreign Affairs, Interior, Defense and the Security and Intelligence Agency is also necessary for them.
A confirmation from the end-user, certified by the official authority of the end-user’s country, is also required. When granting an export permit, it is ensured that it does not violate international sanctions, does not contribute to human rights violations in the country where the goods are going, and does not help cause or perpetuate wars or other conflicts in that country. (RFE)
