The idea, which some are already calling the “Trump Plan”, is that of a peacekeeping force to be deployed along the line of contact between Russia and Ukraine. A contingent of around two hundred thousand men all on the shoulders of Europe, in terms of management and maintenance. An option to be evaluated when Kiev and Moscow would proceed towards a ceasefire. Why exactly two hundred thousand?
There is little more than a month left until Donald Trump takes office in the White House and the urgency to have his say on the Ukraine issue is getting closer and closer. It is urgent, above all and in any case, to have a plan beyond the isolationist gradient that the newly elected president will want to implement in his foreign policy. In recent days, several leaders in Kiev met with Trump’s transition team to discuss the future. Among them, Volodymyr Zelensky’s chief of staff and Deputy Prime Minister Yulia Svyrydenko. An opportunity to clarify the ideas currently circulating in Washington about the future of Ukraine, inside and outside NATO.
TRUMP’S PLAN
The idea, which some are already calling the “Trump Plan”, is that of a peacekeeping force to be deployed along the line of contact between Russia and Ukraine. A contingent of around two hundred thousand men all on the shoulders of Europe, in terms of management and maintenance. An option to be evaluated when Kiev and Moscow would proceed towards a ceasefire. Why exactly two hundred thousand? Trump’s team claims that this number can be justified by the fact that the line of contact with the Russian army is just under two thousand kilometers, from Chernihiv in the north to Kherson in the south.
THE SOLUTION FOR UKRAINE
Zelensky will not be offered security guarantees from either NATO or the United States, exactly the opposite of what the Ukrainian president has repeatedly demanded with his hat in his hand. The leader of Kiev is convinced that freezing the front without creating a defensive shield around Ukraine would only give Vladimir Putin time to prepare the next aggression. In this regard, the post-Minsk agreements of 2014-2015 speak for themselves.
The ball, therefore, passes to Europe, forced to come of age and take on the burden of a mission that it cannot manage alone under the banner of the Union: the European army is not there, it does not exist. The only possible option is the creation of a force-puzzle, formed starting from individual national signs. Paris and London have been consulting on this option for weeks and Emmanuel Macron mentioned it during his visit to Poland. But in a few months it is impossible to write a history that has dragged on since 1945.
NATO ALARM
On the other hand, Europe does not seem to be expecting much from America. “Russia is preparing for a long-term confrontation with Ukraine and with us,” said NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte. “We are not ready for what will come in four to five years,” warned Rutte in a dramatic tone. The NATO chief stressed that the Western military alliance is not ready for the threats it will face from Russia in the coming years and that it is time to switch to a war mentality and increase defense production and defense spending.
Rutte says that NATO members spent more than 3 percent of GDP on defense during the Cold War and asserted that future defense spending will have to be much higher than the Alliance’s current target of 2 percent, Sky News reports. The current security situation is “the worst in my lifetime,” the NATO chief said.
NATO leaders have agreed to end defense cuts that European countries began when the Cold War ended with the collapse of the Soviet Union. After Russia annexed Ukraine’s Crimea peninsula a decade ago, the alliance launched an initiative and obligation for members to set aside 2 percent of GDP for defense. The alliance is founded on the principle that an attack on one member is an attack on all, and Trump’s comments have raised fears about whether the United States would act to help in a crisis. Rutte also warned of a “coordinated campaign to destabilize our societies,” which includes cyberattacks and assassination attempts.
