Head-to-head race between Harris and Trump. The Democratic candidate is slightly ahead in Michigan, the Republican candidate in states other than Wisconsin, where they are tied. New York Times: Kamala’s team is a little optimistic
It will be a challenge to the last vote, especially in the seven key states (Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin) that will decide who, between the Democratic candidate Kamala Harris and the Republican candidate Donald Trump, will go to the White House for the next term as president. A week before the big day, polls reveal a head-to-head situation in each of the seven decisive states. Based on national projections, Harris is ahead with 48.1% to Trump’s 46.6%. Further, 5.3% remain undecided. But these data count for little or nothing, because with the American electoral system – each state assigns a number of “at-large electors” in proportion to its demographic size – the battle will be broken down to the county level.
THE SEVEN DECISIONMAKERS
Therefore, the most indicative are the surveys of the key countries. According to daily data compiled by the website FiveThirtyEight based on recent findings, Harris is thought to have a slight lead (+0.5%) in Michigan while Trump has it in Pennsylvania (+0.3%) and Nevada (+0.2%). However, the difference is slightly more pronounced, again for the Republican candidate, in Arizona (+1.90%), Georgia (+1.50%) and North Carolina (+1.30%). Full tie in Wisconsin. It goes without saying that with such narrow distances and with the unknowns of participation, undecided votes and possible and unpredictable surprises in these last days of the electoral campaign, the result can definitely be different than expected.
An example? Pro-Trump comedian Tony Hinchcliffe’s racist remarks Sunday night on stage at Madison Square Garden (“There’s a floating island of garbage in the middle of the ocean. I think it’s called Puerto Rico”) will not sit well with the Puerto Rican community, which, especially in Pennsylvania, it is numerous. In a state that four years ago was won by Democrats by just 82,000 votes (1.12%), if only a few thousand people decided to go and vote or even change their choice at the last minute in favor of Harris, can be decisive.
MODERATE OPTIMIZATION
Even the strategy of focusing on the women’s vote and painting Trump as a “fascist” for his phrases about the loyalty of Hitler’s generals is working, according to strategists. According to what the New York Times reveals, the spin doctors on Harris’ team are moderately optimistic about achieving a victory, albeit a narrow one, thanks to indications from their internal polls that the candidate is in a solid position in the “blue wall” states ( the blue wall, or the 18 states that Democrats have always won in every election since 1992, except for 2016 when Trump won Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin). Even in Trump’s team, there is optimism that he can conquer at least one state of the “blue wall”, but – the New York newspaper always reveals – there is also a little concern about exactly this “reductio ad Hitlerum” that can move the decisive votes of the moderates.
