The unpleasant experiences from Trump’s first term are still present in NATO. The fear of another mandate within the alliance is great. What can happen?
Four years ago, many diplomats and military officials were relieved by the results. The Trump years are finally over, which was a widespread sense of relief at NATO headquarters. For four years in a row, the head of NATO’s most important country was unpredictable with his arbitrary movements. Donald Trump left behind a series of rifts – from the abandonment of allies in Syria and Iraq, the chaos in Afghanistan that helped the Taliban, to his frequent humiliation of Europeans. Trump never considered the Europeans allies, but, in the words of Jean-Claude Juncker, saw them as “dark figures who did not wish America well, one of the few politicians who managed to cooperate with Trump.” At the opening of NATO’s new headquarters in Brussels in 2017, Trump gave a speech to allies in which he said: “Over the past eight years, the United States has spent more on defense than all other NATO members— s together,” He pointed out that 23 of the 28 NATO member countries do not pay enough for defense. This particularly hit former German Chancellor Angela Merkel, whose country did not pay what was required. American President Trump continued with criticism, saying that he also presented this request to Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg, while Merkel expressed her displeasure.
Mark Rutte, the new Secretary General of NATO, said after taking office that “thanks to Trump” NATO increased defense spending, which surprised those present. He also said that Trump’s critical attitude towards China has now been accepted by many other countries. It is possible that this statement is aimed directly at Trump, since he is in a close race with Kamala Harris. While NATO this time wants to prepare for a possible new term of Trump. The term “resistance to Trump” and his possible deal with Putin also feeds this fear.
Marco Overhaus, an American expert at the Science and Policy Foundation (SWP), explains that “the idea that NATO can become ‘Trump-proof’ is an illusion. NATO can hardly prepare for an extreme scenario such as withdrawal of the USA from NATO”. He notes that the engagement ratio is 75% with the US and 25% with Europe. For NATO, a Kamala Harris victory would be an opportunity to reduce dependence on the US, especially in key military-technical capabilities such as air defense, early warning systems and command structures for major military operations. . According to Overhaus, Europe should also think about the political response to Trump’s “empty chair policy” in NATO. In such a scenario, Europe should reflect on the traditions of joint decision-making and prepare for the possibility that America will use its influence against the will of the Europeans or, what is also realistic, begin to manipulate NATO allies against each other. – to the other.
