The exact figures Atacms Ukraine has received and how much is left are secret. But we do know that some US defense officials have resisted sending large numbers to Ukraine because America’s own reserves are limited and needed to meet its defense commitments elsewhere — particularly in the Pacific. In short, it is probably a limited reserve
Joe Biden’s decision to allow Ukraine to fire US-supplied missiles at targets inside Russia could help Kiev keep its bridgehead in the Kursk region, giving it a valuable card in expected peace talks. Telegraph.
But this good news is accompanied by a more depressing truth. The decision is so carefully calibrated to minimize the risk of escalation, and so loaded with preemptive constraints, that it cannot dramatically change the course of the war. “Yes, Atacms will help in Kursk, and yes, it is absolutely too little and too late,” said Andrei Zagorodnyuk, a former Ukrainian defense minister. The first limitation is geographical. Initial reports suggest that the permission to fire Atacms (meaning the military’s tactical missile system) in Russia only applies to the Kursk region, where Ukraine is trying to keep a small base to use as a bargaining chip when Donald Trump forces the parties to sit down in peace talks.
This is not a bad thing in itself. Russian and North Korean troops are already striking back in an attempt to retake it before Trump’s inauguration in January. “Being able to hit rail lines, command posts and assembly points deep within the region will certainly make a difference to the defense of Ukraine,” Zagorodnyuk said.
But the fighting at Kursk is tactical in character, with both sides using highly dispersed, small-unit attacks to take or retake ground. Many of the best targets in Atacms range are the hundreds of air bases and other military installations in the Smolensk, Kaluga, Bryansk, Tula, Lipetsk, Belgorod, Voronezh, Rostov and Krasnodar regions, but these are out of authorization. So Ukraine may be able to target some munitions, weapons and troop amassing centers inside Kursk. The second limitation is related to time. The first time Ukraine received precision missiles from the West, in the fall of 2022, they really changed the game.
GMLRS missiles originally equipped with US-made Himars wreaked havoc on Russian command, control and logistics and played a key role in the success of the Ukrainian offensives in Kherson and Kharkiv. But that was two years ago.
Russia has had ample time to adapt, both by deploying logistics and troop concentrations, and developing jamming and interception capabilities. After a year of research, Ukraine first received Atacms, which are launched from the same launchers but have a range of 300 km, in late 2023. They were used to devastating effect in Russian-occupied Ukraine, including several attacks high-profile air bases in Crimea. But the public debate over allowing them to shoot in Russia has dragged on for so long that Moscow has already taken countermeasures. As of August, the Institute for the Study of War estimated that Russia had redeployed aircraft from at least 16 air bases within Atacms range.
Much of this delay is due to American concern about managing the risk of direct escalation with Russia. North Korea’s presence in Kursk helps the White House portray the Atacms deployment as within the unwritten rules of the escalation game: Russia raised the stakes first by bringing in foreign troops.
The lack of surprise brings us to the third limitation: the amount of missiles. In September 2023, while the initial decision to supply Atacms was being debated, Kyrillo Budanov, the head of Ukrainian military intelligence, told the US website WarZone that “if it’s 100 missiles, it won’t change the situation”. Asked how much Ukraine needed, he replied: “At least hundreds.” The exact figures Atacms Ukraine has received and how much is left are secret. But we do know that some US defense officials have resisted sending large numbers to Ukraine because America’s own reserves are limited and needed to meet its defense commitments elsewhere — particularly in the Pacific. In short, it is probably a limited reserve.
Russia has claimed success in downing and jamming the GPS guidance systems of Gmlrs and Atacms missiles. While the actual rate of interception is difficult to confirm, it cannot be assumed that any of those remaining will reach their target. “It’s all about the number of missiles. If the Ukrainians had hundreds of Atacms, we would see the Russians having a harder time adapting and suffering much heavier losses,” Mr. Muzyka said. “If there are 100 left, then that’s not a number that will have much impact on this operation, let alone the war. “So the question is: Will the United States provide more Atacm to Ukraine before Donald Trump takes office?” There is no correct answer to this question.
