The situation would worsen significantly if Iran decides to close the Strait of Hormuz, through which about 20 percent of global oil and natural gas consumption passes. For a country like Kosovo, which has already experienced a significant increase in electricity prices of 16% this year, “further increases would be a shock to the economy.”
At a time when the world is in suspense over the escalation of tensions in the Middle East and the possible consequences of a global conflict, small states like Kosovo are faced with some fundamental questions: how prepared are they to face a crisis that could shake the most stable foundations of international security, and what concrete risks threaten them? According to security expert Adrian Shtuni, the nature of a global crisis is such that no one remains immune to its consequences, but not everyone is affected equally.
“Kosovo is generally moderately vulnerable, but comparatively more so than other Western Balkan countries,” he says, citing economic, political and security reasons. For international policy expert Gëzim Visoka, Serbia’s continued hostility poses the greatest threat to Kosovo’s stability – a risk that, in times of global crisis, can be amplified and exploited by actors with destabilizing interests.
ECONOMIC CONSEQUENCES AND SECURITY CHALLENGES FOR KOSOVO
Adrian Shtuni, from the International Counterterrorism Center, emphasizes that Kosovo is particularly vulnerable to the economic consequences that this crisis could cause. He explains that the situation would worsen significantly if Iran decides to close the Strait of Hormuz, through which about 20 percent of global oil and natural gas consumption passes. For a country like Kosovo, which has already experienced a significant increase in the price of electricity of 16% this year, “further increase would be a shock to the economy,” Shtuni tells Radio Free Europe.
He underlines that, with an economy heavily reliant on imports and remittances – which account for around 13% of GDP – any shock to the global economy would immediately translate into pressure on Kosovar households. “Also, the fact that Kosovo has a significant trade deficit, which in December 2024 increased by 17.5% compared to a year earlier, exposes it even more to a global crisis, which would increase not only the price of energy, but also of food and consumer goods, which the country mainly imports,” says Shtuni.
The Washington-based expert warns that the economic consequences cannot be separated from the political and security challenges. In times of crisis, when the attention of strategic partners is scattered, he says, Kosovo risks falling off the radar of even its most important allies.
Gëzim Visoka, professor of Peace and Conflict Studies at Dublin City University, shares a similar concern. He points out that global crises create geopolitical vacuums that can be exploited by destabilizing actors to weaken Kosovo. Visoka sees Serbia’s continued hostility as “the greatest threat to the country’s internal stability.” He also warns that Kosovo’s heavy dependence on NATO’s military presence makes it particularly vulnerable if the Alliance is forced to move troops to hot spots of global conflict. “Other risks could be covert attacks by non-Western governments and non-state groups on the NATO and US military presence in Kosovo,” Visoka tells Radio Free Europe.
In the same vein, Shtuni adds that actors with unfriendly intentions towards the Western Balkans, especially those who are traditionally against the Region’s EU and NATO membership, may exploit the lull in global crises to destabilize the Region. According to him, these threats target two weak points, Bosnia and Herzegovina and Kosovo, by instrumentalizing the divisions and interethnic tensions in these two countries.
LACK OF INTERNATIONAL INTEGRATION, AN OBSTACLE TO CRISIS MANAGEMENT
Both experts emphasize that international isolation makes Kosovo more vulnerable to global crises. The lack of membership in the UN, EU or Interpol, they say, excludes the country from collective mechanisms of international response and support. This, according to Shtun, “constitutes an obstacle to stronger and more efficient cooperation in confronting terrorism or cybercrime – problems that could increase if the crisis in the Middle East escalates further.” Visoka also warns that, as long as Kosovo remains outside international decision-making organizations, it has no real opportunity to influence global processes or protect its interests. “Kosovo’s voice remains largely unheard,” he emphasizes.
WHAT CAN KOSOVO DO?
Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty contacted the caretaker government of Kosovo to ask whether concrete measures have been taken to protect the economy and energy sector from a potential global crisis, but received no response. In this challenging context, experts underline the urgent need to strengthen institutions and deepen Regional and international cooperation. Shtuni stresses that the fact that Kosovo, more than four months after the elections, still does not have a constituted assembly and a functioning government seriously weakens its capacity to face security challenges. He calls this a “self-inflicted weakness” due to a lack of political will.
“This constitutes the most damaging disarmament of leadership in Kosovo, disarmament from political accountability and practical thinking for compromise solutions. If there is no rapid awareness, this crisis risks bringing costly and long-term consequences for the country,” says Shtuni.
Visoka also emphasizes the importance of building institutional stability and deepening security relations with Kosovo’s key allies. He adds that attention should also be focused on strengthening cybersecurity and creating platforms and mechanisms to avoid, as he says, “the risks that come from the breakdown of the international order, such as disruptions to international trade, energy, health, the environment, as well as cultural and religious conflicts.”
EXPERIENCE FROM THE WAR IN UKRAINE
How global crises can directly affect even small and geographically remote countries like Kosovo was clearly demonstrated after Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022. Kosovo immediately faced rising electricity prices, rising inflation, and rising commodity prices – direct consequences of the global supply crisis. With an economy heavily reliant on imports and limited production capacity, the country had little room to cushion the effects. The government intervened with subsidies for certain categories of citizens, but the economic blow was felt widely.
The crisis also exposed fragility in the security field: Kosovo, still outside NATO, was left without full guarantees in a Europe that was entering a new phase of uncertainty.
In this situation, President Vjosa Osmani called for the acceleration of Kosovo’s membership in NATO, warning that the lack of integration leaves the country vulnerable to Russian influences and Regional tensions. Today, Kosovo continues to remain outside NATO, the EU, Interpol, the United Nations and other organizations, and the membership blockage is mainly related to the lack of an agreement to normalize relations with Serbia. “To restart the engine of integration into international organizations and benefit from the advantages they offer, Kosovo will need to adopt a more proactive and practical approach, without delay,” concludes Shtuni.
WHAT IS HAPPENING IN THE MIDDLE EAST?
For several days, Israel has been launching intensive attacks on Iran. Its stated goal is to destroy Iran’s nuclear program, which it sees as an existential threat to its security. Iran has responded with attacks on Israeli targets and has warned of even harsher military responses. The United States has also been involved in this mess, striking Iranian nuclear facilities in Fordow, Natanz, and Esfahan. US President Donald Trump has declared that “Iran, the bully of the Middle East, must choose peace. If it does not do so, the next attack will be bigger and easier.” Iran has vowed to retaliate, further escalating the situation and making the crisis unpredictable.
