However, serious concerns are beginning to be felt in expert circles, especially in light of President Trump’s cautious stance: because, as military history textbooks teach, starting a war is much easier than ending it. Among the most authoritative voices expressing concern is Udi Citrinowicz, former head of the Iran Division of Israeli Military Intelligence, now responsible for the program on Iran and the Shiite axis at the Institute for National Security Studies.
If you read the latest polls (the Israeli prime minister’s party has reached its highest level of support since October 7, 2023) and the editorials of the mainstream media, everything is going very well in Israel: the campaign against Iran is destroying the Islamic Republic’s military leadership and setting back its nuclear program. Israel is eagerly awaiting the United States to join the attack to destroy the Fordow facility once and for all, and hopes that this will hasten the regime’s downfall.
However, serious concerns are beginning to be felt in expert circles, especially in light of President Trump’s cautious stance: because, as military history textbooks teach, starting a war is much easier than ending it. Among the most authoritative voices expressing concern is Udi Citrinowicz, former head of the Iran Division of Israeli Military Intelligence, now responsible for the program on Iran and the Shiite axis at the Institute for National Security Studies. Citrinowicz warns: “It will not be a short campaign.”
Trump is delaying: are we entering a lockdown phase?
I don’t believe the US will wait another two weeks to decide, but a complex assessment needs to be made: if the destruction of Fordow is real, perhaps Iran will respond by striking American targets or by attacking maritime traffic in the Strait of Hormuz, with incalculable economic consequences. The alternative is negotiations. But for what result? To where? What the US is offering is unacceptable to Iran. So, whichever path it takes, no one sees a quick conclusion on the horizon.
Faced with these scenarios, what is Israel’s strategy?
We have no illusions, no one will offer us a good deal on the table: what worries me is the duration. This war has very high costs, and some predictions are already circulating that speak of a billion dollars a day: sending planes to Iran, the damage we are suffering to the targets hit, the weapons we are using… Fighting Iran is not the same as fighting in Gaza. We have achieved dominance of the skies and caused great damage to the enemy – what now? How do we move forward?
The Prime Minister has spoken openly about regime change…?
I don’t think that by killing Khamenei, we will make the future better. Russia has already said that it will react, we will have Shiites against us all over the world, the regime may survive anyway: in the end, Khamenei’s death may serve the game of our enemies.
The scenario you are describing is not much different from that of Gaza: military superiority, but lack of a political plan… Of course: it is the same thing. We are able to strike and inflict mortal wounds, but then, how do we close this? Without a political agreement there is no way out of either crisis.
You’ve been studying Iran for 25 years: suppose Netanyahu and his people are at the helm of this war. Is it possible that no one raised their hand to warn?
In the command room it is not only Netanyahu and his people: the Armed Forces are there too, we know that they have real influence. It is a problematic situation and I believe that it must turn into a political solution. It is true, we have caused great damage, but this has not yet changed Iran’s nuclear capacity.
But, today in Israel, in the rhythm of this campaign, there is a kind of euphoria: so say the polls, the television, the editorialists, even those who are usually critical of the government…?
A euphoria that cannot be justified. We forget some fundamental questions: are we really any closer to stopping uranium enrichment? To be fair, wasn’t it Netanyahu who pushed Trump to pull out of the 2015 nuclear deal? It may have been a success then, but what matters is how a war ends, not how it begins.
And how will this end?
Nobody knows this. I can say that the situation is more complicated than it seems to the public. This is a country that has already been in a state of semi-war with Iran for more than ten days of bombing. Iran is strong, but the most dangerous enemy is not the one in front of us: it is the belief that we are stronger than the blows we are suffering. (La Repuclic)
