The Islamic Republic has been struck at its nuclear and military heart, but it must also confront deep internal rifts. And decide whether to continue with open war or reopen a tenuous dialogue. Between young secularists and dissident monarchists: a look at today’s Persia
The lion is wounded, but not gone. The Israeli operations that have struck at Iran’s nuclear and military heart have not deterred Tehran’s response. This was the first of many dangerous gambles by Israel. Strike, response, counterstrike and counterattack. On one side is the great nuclear power of the Middle East supported by the United States, on the other a weakened ancient power that no one knows if it has secured the atomic bomb. Like Israel, weakened by months and months of brutal war and political tensions, Iran is also divided from within. Its situation seems even more extreme. And when a wounded lion is forced into a corner, there is no telling how it might end up. The Islamic Republic is therefore at a historical crossroads, to the point where it may soon no longer be Islamic and perhaps not even a Republic. The counterattack launched against Israel is the largest military operation carried out since the Iraq war. And it is not known how long it will really last.
The Iranian threat Unlike the “phone” attacks of a year ago, Iran now faces a truly existential choice: reopen a tenuous dialogue or launch into all-out war. Judging by the counterattacks against Israel, the choice appears to have been made.
But there is not enough energy to continue this race for long. After October 7, 2023, the Islamic Republic found itself facing an Israeli enemy that changed its stance, abandoning the “octopus doctrine” and the “death by a thousand cuts” tactic in favor of direct attacks, positioning itself as an unpredictable and uncompromising antagonist. A disorienting turn of events for the Iranians, convinced that the difficulties in finally defeating even the “modest” Hamas in the Gaza Strip and the growing condemnation for the thousands of Palestinian deaths had backed Israel into a corner. Tehran also hoped that the United States would at some point slow down its unruly protégé in the Middle East. As if all this were not enough, the Islamic Republic has found itself facing a generational clash that not only resulted in street protests but was also fueled within the political-military elites. An authentic secular push, continued for at least two generations against the theocratic rigidity of the Shiite regime.
Iran humiliated and the Israeli threat In addition to being a blow to its nuclear program and Armed Forces, the all-out Israeli attack has also crippled the prestige of Persian power. To the point that it is hoped for the possible fall of the Ayatollahs’ regime, under the anger of a population and a young people (among the most active and with a low average age in the whole world) tired of humiliation, sanctions and destruction. Tehran has reacted and will try to react for an indefinite time, but the timing of the Israeli attack is probably related to the fact that the Islamic Republic’s retaliatory options seem limited compared to recent years. Before the Hamas attack against Israel on October 7, 2023, which shocked the Region, Iran relied mainly on three means to deter and threaten Israel, the United States and other enemies:
– attacks by proxies from its Regional satellites (Hamas-Hezbollah-Houthi)
– missiles and other long-range attacks
– terrorism, using both its own agents and those of intermediary forces
Iran is likely to use these tools again, but Israel is betting again that Persian power is weaker than in the past and that the cost it would incur will be manageable. And, again, that Tehran is incapable of enduring a protracted conflict.
