A spy thriller with Ukraine, a farewell to the peace mentality, a declaration of war on the opposition: Hungary is going through a turbulent period these days.
Espionage, intelligence warfare, a diplomatic ice age with Ukraine, a pro-Russian propaganda campaign, the Minister of Defense’s bellicose speech, and most recently the dubious investigation into the most important domestic political opponent of Viktor Orbán’s regime – Hungary is currently not only going through a period of bombastic headlines, but these days could decide whether the country can return to the democratic path or, with Orbán at the helm, will sink into a Moscow-style dictatorship. But let’s start first.
Last Friday, the Ukrainian secret service SBU announced that it had arrested two Ukrainian citizens suspected of spying for Hungary in the Zakarpattia Region along the border with Hungary. To substantiate these allegations, the SBU published a large amount of material, as well as the alleged confession of one of the detainees. The spies allegedly collected data for the Hungarian secret service on the movement of the army, whether weapons could be obtained on the illegal market, as well as information on how the local population would behave in the event of an invasion by the Hungarian army.
RELATIONSHIPS AT THE LOWEST POINT
This is the first time that Ukraine has detected suspected Hungarian spies, and all this comes at a time when relations between the neighbors are at their lowest point in a long time. It did not take long for official Budapest to react. That same day, Hungarian Foreign Minister Peter Szijjarto expelled two Ukrainian diplomats for suspected espionage. Szijjarto said on Facebook that Hungary would not allow Ukraine to constantly accuse him just because Hungary wants peace and that Hungary would not allow itself to be drawn into war. Prime Minister Orban reacted immediately, commenting that Hungary is currently deciding whether Ukraine can become a member of the European Union and that “neither Brussels nor Kiev likes this,” Orban said, alluding to a possible referendum on Ukraine’s EU membership announced by his government, which is full of racist propaganda directed against Ukrainians.
“PHASE ZERO ON THE ROAD TO WAR”
This is the first time since the Russian invasion of Ukraine that the country has clashed with a NATO member at this level. Adding to the scandal is a recently leaked speech by Hungarian Defense Minister Kristof Szalay-Bobrovniczky from April 2023, which was released by Peter Magyar, the president of the opposition Tisza party and Orbán’s main competitor in next year’s elections. In that speech, Szalay-Bobrovniczky talks about how Hungary is saying goodbye to its “peacemaking mentality” and moving into “phase zero of war.” Although he does not say specifically what kind of war it is, he said he only wanted to emphasize that Hungary is ready to defend its peace. But this statement contradicts Orbán’s assertions that Hungary is the only country in the EU that wants peace.
This combination of the Defense Minister’s “war speech” and knowledge of espionage in the Transcarpathian Region speaks in favor of the fact that Orban is counting on possible border changes and the return of part of the Transcarpathian Region that once belonged to Hungary. It is currently impossible for Hungary to take military action against Ukraine, but Orban has on several occasions spoken of “no man’s land” or “an area called Ukraine” instead of Ukraine, clearly denying the neighboring country’s statehood. Orban has also sent similar provocations in the direction of Croatia, taking pictures on several occasions with historical maps of Hungary, which once included Croatia.
Orban often accuses Ukraine of not respecting the rights of the Hungarian minority, which is not in line with reality. Orban’s pro-Russian and anti-Ukrainian stances seem even more dangerous when you consider that Russia is considering “dividing” parts of this country to its neighbors Poland, Slovakia, Romania, and Hungary in the event of a victory over Ukraine. Orban has never rejected these plans and no longer repeats as before that Hungary does not want border changes.
CAMPAIGN AGAINST FORMER ARMY CHIEF OF STAFF
At the same time, more and more details are emerging about the dismissal of the former Chief of Staff of the Hungarian Army, Romulusz Ruszin-Szendi, who has since become the spokesman for the opposition Tisza party. Now the government is launching a campaign against him for alleged embezzlement and alleged pro-Ukrainian views. Orbán even accuses him of national treason. Orbán, in the fight against the opposition Tisza, which is far ahead of Orbán’s Fidesz in the polls, is playing the pro-Ukrainian card a lot and accusing Magyar of working in favor of Ukraine and not Hungary. Ukraine has apparently replaced George Sorosakoji, who was previously an “opposition financier” and a journalist who wrote against the regime.
But it seems that in the case of Peter Magyar, this campaign is not succeeding: Magyar and his party are still the most popular political force in the country. Now they are clearly moving to the Russian technique of destroying opponents as in the case of Alexei Navalny: numerous court trials. According to the latest data, Magyar is accused of stock manipulation. Although there is no evidence for this, the Hungarian Central Bank and the State Prosecutor’s Office have already launched an investigation and are said to have evidence. Pro-regime media are already calculating a long prison sentence for Hungary: five years. (DW)
