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Thursday, April 17, 2025

How might Europe respond?

The bloc has already rejected a possible option: withdrawing the cards it holds. But the promise of retaliation is just the beginning.

The European Union has several options when considering its response to Donald Trump’s overnight announcements, including retaliation through tariffs on U.S. goods and services and forging closer ties with other countries. The bloc has already ruled out one possible option: withdrawing its cards. But the promise of retaliation is only the beginning. The questions now revolve around what response the EU will have, how quickly it can marshal its forces, and whether divisions between member states will undermine difficult negotiations. The EU’s response will depend on how united its 27 member states are behind a common strategy in a trade war that could cause economic turmoil and job losses in Europe.

An early indicator is expected on Monday when EU trade ministers meet to discuss the planned retaliation this month and other measures.

France is concerned about the consequences for its wine and alcoholic beverage industries; Dublin fears an exodus of American multinationals with headquarters in Ireland; and Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni has said the bloc should not act impulsively, while the national industrial group Confindustria has called for negotiations with the White House. Forming a common line will be critical for new forms of trade retaliation: for example, only a weighted majority of EU countries can decide whether the bloc faces an obligation from the U.S. This would be a result almost no one could have imagined a decade ago.

The bloc has already rejected a possible option: withdrawing the cards it holds. But the promise of retaliation is just the beginning.

The European Union has several options when considering its response to Donald Trump’s overnight announcements, including retaliation through tariffs on U.S. goods and services and forging closer ties with other countries. The bloc has already ruled out one possible option: withdrawing its cards. But the promise of retaliation is only the beginning. The questions now revolve around what response the EU will have, how quickly it can marshal its forces, and whether divisions between member states will undermine difficult negotiations. The EU’s response will depend on how united its 27 member states are behind a common strategy in a trade war that could cause economic turmoil and job losses in Europe.

An early indicator is expected on Monday when EU trade ministers meet to discuss the planned retaliation this month and other measures.

France is concerned about the consequences for its wine and alcoholic beverage industries; Dublin fears an exodus of American multinationals with headquarters in Ireland; and Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni has said the bloc should not act impulsively, while the national industrial group Confindustria has called for negotiations with the White House. Forming a common line will be critical for new forms of trade retaliation: for example, only a weighted majority of EU countries can decide whether the bloc faces an obligation from the U.S. This would be a result almost no one could have imagined a decade ago.

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