Despite the difficulty of making accurate long-term predictions for such complex systems, it must be acknowledged that climate scientists have been sounding the alarm for years: the Mediterranean as a climate hotspot, where the effects of global warming risk having a greater impact than everywhere else, it will witness extremes of drought on the one hand and rainfall on the other
A cold air bubble at high altitude. Isolated from the rest of the atmospheric circulation. Capable of drawing large amounts of warm, moist air around itself. And to condense water vapor, discharging it to the ground in the form of rain and hail. The Spanish call it Dana (an acronym for High Altitude Isolated Atmospheric Depression), but among climatologists and meteorologists it is known as the “cold spot”.
If the Iberian name is established, it is also because the atmospheric phenomenon is known on the east coast of Spain. In 1982, a Dana caused about thirty deaths south of where it hit this time. Other serious but less destructive episodes occurred in November 1987 and September 2019. Almost always in autumn, however, when there are no longer anticyclones in the Mediterranean to protect against cold air blows and the sea, which still has high temperatures due to accumulated heat. Never like this year: according to data from the European Copernicus Observatory, Mare Nostrum broke every record last summer: on August 13, 2024, the average temperature of the Mediterranean reached the highest point since measurements began: 28.45 degrees, against peaks of 25- 26 just a few decades ago.
Of course, it is too early to establish a cause-and-effect relationship between the “swelling” sea and the torrential rains that devastated Valencia and its region. But one cannot help but notice how extreme weather phenomena are intensifying in the Mediterranean area: the sequence of floods in Emilia Romagna, the destruction of Derna, in Libya, just over a year ago and a few months ago.
Torrential rains “the biggest natural disaster of all time” in Slovenia. Now, Dana that has hit southeastern Spain. All events that have in common energy-rich air (high temperatures) and water (steam released from the sea). The mixture of the two components can take different forms depending on the geographical latitudes and orography of the territory. But the result is almost always the same: a wall of water falling to the ground. Residents of Florida and North Carolina, who were hit by hurricanes Helene and Milton a few weeks ago, know something. Those in the Philippines saw the passage of tropical storm Trami, which caused over 100 casualties. Or those who were lucky, at least in this case, could admire the spectacle of one of the driest areas of the Moroccan Sahara flooded: in September, 200 millimeters of rain fell in just 24 hours.
Will this be the new normal? Despite the difficulty of making accurate long-term predictions for such complex systems, it must be acknowledged that climate scientists have been sounding the alarm for years: the Mediterranean as a climate hotspot, where the effects of global warming risk having a greater impact than everywhere else, it will witness extremes of drought on the one hand and rainfall on the other.
In Catalonia, several hundred kilometers to the north of the region already submerged by water and mud, there has been a lack of rainfall for more than three years, necessitating a state of emergency and rationing of drinking water.
We put the world’s water in our lidded pots (reservoirs, aqueducts, sewers, buried streams…) and then light a big fire under them, burning the fuels and thus producing the greenhouse gases that warm the planet. Last Monday, the World Meteorological Organization highlighted in its annual report that concentrations of carbon dioxide, a major driver of global warming, are increasing faster than at any time since our species evolved. We can witness scenes like those in the stunned and helpless Valencia. Or decide to remove the lids, releasing the water. And to extinguish the fire, giving up coal, oil and gas.
