The Lithuanian authorities’ concerns are not limited to the potential military threat from Russia, but also to the nuclear risk. The Belarusian Ostrovets nuclear power plant, located just 50 kilometers from Vilnius, is considered unsafe by the Lithuanian authorities. For this reason, iodine tablets have been distributed and decontamination exercises have been organized.
With the shadow of a protracted conflict in Ukraine continuing to darken the security horizon in Eastern Europe, Lithuania has decided not to sit idly by. In a move that reflects the seriousness of the threats felt on NATO’s eastern borders, Vilnius Mayor Valdas Benkunskas has unveiled a full evacuation plan for the Lithuanian capital, a precautionary measure aimed at preparing the population for a possible war scenario. “Historically, the enemy has always come from the east,” he declared, leaving little room for interpretation on the source of the threat.
VILNIUS PLAN
The presented plan includes three main escape corridors to the west, which will be used to evacuate about 600 Vilnius residents within a 48-hour period if the situation worsens. The mayor stressed that this initiative is not intended to create panic, but to ensure good cooperation between security institutions and boost citizens’ trust in the country’s defense capabilities. Practical tests of this plan will begin next fall.
The Lithuanian authorities’ concerns are not limited to the potential military threat from Russia, but also to the nuclear risk. The Belarusian Ostrovets nuclear power plant, located just 50 kilometers from Vilnius, has been deemed unsafe by Lithuanian authorities. For this reason, iodine tablets have been distributed and decontamination exercises have been organized. The combination of an open conflict in the Region and the presence of a dangerous nuclear facility has prompted Lithuania to take measures that would have seemed extreme before, but are now considered reasonable.
MOBILIZATION OF STATES
These extraordinary measures reflect a growing fear in all the Baltic states, not just Lithuania. Estonia and Latvia have also increased their defense budgets and are strengthening cooperation with NATO allies. A significant source of this uncertainty is the joint military exercise “Zapad” (West), which will be held in September by the Russian and Belarusian armed forces. Many see this as an opportunity for Moscow to send troops to NATO borders and simulate war scenarios at a geopolitically charged moment. Moreover, former US President Donald Trump’s stance on NATO has caused additional uncertainty.
Trump has often criticized European countries for their low financial contributions to the alliance and has implied in several statements that the US will not automatically defend allies in the event of aggression. These statements, while not representing official US policy today, have shaken the confidence of many eastern NATO countries, which are now preparing more intensively for their own defense.
RUSSIAN CAPABILITIES
However, military analysts say a new Russian offensive outside Ukraine currently seems unlikely. Moscow’s military is deeply engaged on the Ukrainian front, where progress is slow and casualties are high. Ukraine, despite the difficulties, has maintained the ability to conduct operations on Russian territory, including raids in the Belgorod Region and control of parts of Kursk province. In this context, Russian President Vladimir Putin has acknowledged the challenges facing his military.
At a recent meeting with the Defense and Military Industry Committee, he acknowledged that there is a shortage of FPV combat drones, which are essential for frontline operations. Although Russia has produced and delivered over 1.5 million drones of various types, only a small fraction are of high quality and usable on the front lines. Putin asked the Defense Ministry to speed up the solution to this problem.
