“We have to be on par with the 1,550 strategic nuclear warheads that Russia has, otherwise we will not have strategic influence over what is going on in Putin’s mind, and that is critical for deterrence. Moreover, Russia has a 10-to-1 advantage in short-range tactical nuclear weapons,” says Maximilian Terhalle, a fellow at Stanford University’s Hoover Institution.
Europe needs to secure nearly a thousand more nuclear warheads if it hopes to deter Vladimir Putin, a German political scientist has warned. Maximilian Terhalle, a fellow at Stanford University’s Hoover Institution, said Putin has at least 1,550 long-range nuclear missiles, while Europe has only a few hundred. Concerns that President Donald Trump could reduce security guarantees for Europe have led to discussions in EU capitals about creating a nuclear defense independent of the United States. “Trump has turned the enemy, he has turned Russia into a friend, and that is a matter with serious consequences. In the event that America withdraws completely from Europe (which has not yet happened), we have to ask ourselves how we will compensate for this, because Russia’s imperial ambitions have not diminished at all,” Dr. Terhalle told The Telegraph.
“We have to be on par with the 1,550 strategic nuclear warheads that Russia has, otherwise we will not have strategic influence over what is going on in Putin’s mind, and that is critical for deterrence. Furthermore, Russia has a 10-to-1 advantage in short-range tactical nuclear weapons,” he added.
Dr. Terhalle says that the nuclear arsenals of France and the UK consist of around 450 long-range “strategic” nuclear warheads, weapons that would determine the outcome of a war, as well as 200 smaller “tactical” warheads. “I am a staunch transatlanticist, and as such I do not want NATO to disintegrate in any way, but we also have to look after ourselves,” he added. Friedrich Merz, Germany’s chancellor-elect, has warned that America under Trump has become “largely indifferent to the fate of Europe,” suggesting that the US is no longer a reliable security partner. The leader of the centre-right Christian Democratic Union (CDU) has proposed that Britain and France extend their nuclear umbrella to Germany, as part of efforts to make European defence independent of Washington.
Germany holds US nuclear weapons and is protected by NATO’s nuclear shield. But Trump’s rapprochement with Russia has led to discussions in Berlin about additional forms of protection. The UK government follows a policy of ambiguity about its nuclear program.
France has an independent and “homegrown” nuclear defence, which, according to French President Emmanuel Macron, should be part of the European defence debate. The Telegraph revealed this week that France is considering the possibility of stationing nuclear-armed fighter jets in Germany, as it would send a “strong message” to Russia. The French government says its nuclear doctrine “has not changed”. Dr Terhalle, a prominent voice in Germany on the nuclear weapons debate, has previously argued that Berlin should join EU allies in buying or leasing 1,550 US nuclear warheads for a European-led nuclear defence.
According to him, this would have been a possibility under the Biden administration, while “the Trump administration may be less inclined” to accept this proposal.
Dr. Bahram Ghiassee, a nuclear weapons analyst at the Henry Jackson Society, said Mr. Merz’s proposal to join the British or French nuclear umbrella was feasible – but had attracted little interest from EU allies when it was first proposed. “The idea of Europeanizing nuclear deterrence has been mentioned before, former French President Nicolas Sarkozy actually floated the idea and it was met with indifference by Mrs. Merkel in particular,” he said. “Macron has floated it more than twice. So this idea has been around for a few years. My personal opinion is that it is an excellent idea, because Europe needs to break away from this transatlantic alliance that has become unsustainable. And from a legal point of view, there is no obstacle to Germany, France and the United Kingdom forming a pact on nuclear defense and security.” (The Telegraph)
