In the last hours, Kubilius warned that Europe must prepare for a possible military escalation with Russia as early as 2027. During a parliamentary hearing session in Rome, he spoke of a “perfect storm” generated by three converging factors: the continuation of the war in Ukraine, the increase of Russian aggression, and the progressive disengagement of the United States from the European continent.
Europe must prepare to defend itself. In the strategic landscape of the next ten years, the hypothesis that the Old Continent must personally take on the burden of its own security seems not only believable but also increasingly inevitable. The alarm was raised by the European Commissioner for Defense, Andrius Kubilius, according to whom the United States is destined to progressively reduce its military commitment on the European continent. “Defending Europe relying only on its own forces will not be an easy task,” Kubilius warned, “but we must be ready to face this challenge.” The Commissioner also emphasized three main elements which, when combined, risk generating an unprecedented security crisis: the prolonged conflict in Ukraine, the rise of Russian military aggressiveness, and an acceleration of the American withdrawal from the region.
ALARM IN EUROPE
In the last hours, Kubilius warned that Europe must prepare for a possible military escalation with Russia in 2027. During a parliamentary hearing session in Rome, he spoke of a “perfect storm” generated by three converging factors: the continuation of the war in Ukraine, the increase of Russian aggression, and the progressive disengagement of the United States from the European continent. In this scenario, the European Union will urgently need to strengthen its defensive capabilities by reinforcing its military industry and increasing investments. Kubilius cited the principle “Si vis pacem, para bellum” to emphasize the need to prepare for war in order to ensure peace. “Our intelligence services predict that starting from 2027-2028, Putin could be ready to test NATO’s Article 5. This year, Putin is again organizing large-scale military exercises ‘Zapad’ in Belarus, near the borders with Poland and Lithuania. This is the first time since the war started in 2022,” Kubilius said loudly from Aachen.
INCREASE OF INVESTMENTS
“Putin’s aggression will only increase in the future. If peace were achieved in Ukraine, Putin would continue to mobilize the Russian war economy to produce large quantities of weapons. At the moment, Putin is able to produce four times more weapons than all NATO members (including the United States) together,” he noted. During his mission in Rome, Kubilius reiterated the need for EU member states to increase investments in the military sector, stressing that access to EU financial support instruments, such as SAFE credits or the national defense clause foreseen by the Stability and Growth Pact, will be conditioned by the sustainability of the public finances of the individual states. In the case of Italy, which is very limited by structural budget constraints, no specific proposal has come from Brussels to ease the process. Kubilius avoided indicating alternative solutions but hoped that the government “will independently identify the most effective way to pursue the strategic imperative of strengthening defense spending.”
VON DER LEYEN’S ‘OPTIMISM’
The EU must change direction and take responsibility for security. Kubilius spoke of “trillions of billions of additional defense expenditures that will be made.” Certainly more than the 800 billion that, with some optimism, Ursula von der Leyen had planned to mobilize in the coming years through the expansion of the Stability and Growth Pact and the 150 billion credit instrument guaranteed by the EU budget. “According to future NATO agreements, we will have to spend 3.5% of our GDP on our defense every year. But currently, we spend less than 0.1% of our GDP to help Ukraine with its defense. There is something wrong with these figures and with our military logic,” he said.
