Russia has long considered the Balkans part of its sphere of influence. But as VOA correspondent Dorian Jones reports from Istanbul, Russia’s current focus on the war in Ukraine is creating a vacuum in the region and giving Turkey an opportunity to expand its role.
Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has stepped up efforts to expand Turkey’s influence in the Balkans, hosting Montenegrin Prime Minister Milojko Spajic in December, after visiting Albania and Serbia in October.
“The Balkans are a success story for Ankara, and the number one reason for that is because Turkey has successfully managed to act as a mediator, able to maintain parallel relations with all governments and all ethnic groups,” says analyst Vuk Vuksanovic of the Belgrade Center for Security Policy.
Muslim-majority Turkey has long had strong ties with Albania.
But President Erdogan has also recently cultivated a strong relationship with Serbia, one that has been built on deepening economic ties and a personal relationship with Serbian President Aleksandar Vučić.
Russia has historically considered Serbia part of its sphere of influence, but it has been distracted by its war in Ukraine, something that is working to Turkey’s advantage.
“Of course, Russia has always used Serbia for its strategic interests. The problem is that Putin is not that strong at the moment, despite the fact that there are political parties and intellectuals in Serbia that directly favor Russian policy,” says Professor Huseyin Bagci, of the Middle East Technical University in Ankara.
Russia and NATO have supported rival sides in Balkan conflicts in the past, most recently over Kosovo, where tensions persist and where a NATO-led peacekeeping force is stationed.
The ongoing risk of instability makes Ankara’s growing involvement important.
“Turkey has a military presence in the Balkans. It is present on the ground because of its participation in NATO and EU peacekeeping efforts in the Balkans. And at the same time, if there is any possibility of any kind of tension, Turkey can try to gain some diplomatic and political points, trying to be something common between the parties involved,” says analyst Vuksanovic.
Stability in the Balkans is also vital for Turkey, because the region is a vital trade route between Turkey and its most important trading partner, the European Union.
President Erdogan’s recent visits to the Balkans have taken place against a backdrop of growing frustration among these countries over their stalled efforts to join the EU.
“Ankara seeks to position itself as an indispensable partner for the region and is often seen by Europeans as a periphery. And [these visits] also send a broader message. “I think [they aim] to serve as a counterweight to the indecisiveness of the European Union and are an attempt to overtake Russia and China,” says Professor Zoran Ivanov, of the University of Economics and Technology, TOBB, in Ankara.
The Balkan region, with its ongoing rivalries and frozen conflicts, is becoming the scene of a new battle for influence, between historic and emerging powers. (VOA)
