In parallel with the procurement of drones, countries in the Region are also working on the procurement of integrated systems for tracking and shooting down drones. Croatia and Serbia have smaller such systems, while, most recently, Turkey donated an anti-drone system to Bosnia and Herzegovina.
Nearly thirty years after a ceasefire in the Western Balkans, new armed drones are quietly patrolling the Region, but no one knows exactly how many. The agreement on subRegional arms control was signed in 1996 – a year after the end of the war in Bosnia and Herzegovina – under the auspices of the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE). It placed limits on the number of tanks, armoured vehicles, heavy artillery, fighter jets and attack helicopters in Bosnia and Herzegovina, Croatia, Serbia and Montenegro.
But today, the list is conspicuously missing a deadly modern weapon: armed drones. “Only three countries possessed armed drones in 2010. By the end of 2024, that number had grown to over 40,” Antonio Prlenda, a military analyst from Sarajevo who recently defended his master’s thesis on the subject, tells Radio Free Europe.
NEW RULES OF THE GAME OF WAR
Military drones are cheaper, more mobile and more deadly than traditional fighter jets. They have become a weapon of choice in today’s conflicts – from Ukraine, through the Caucasus to the Middle East – and everyone wants to have them in their armed forces. The Western Balkans is no exception. Serbia has bought attack drones from China, the United Arab Emirates and Israel. It is also developing domestic models: the Pegaz, Vrabac and Komarac, which have filled the skies over this country, after – at least for now – the deal to buy Bayraktar drones from Turkey fell through.
Croatia has purchased six armed Turkish drones and is producing its own deadly mini-drones, which it has exported, among other things, to Ukraine.
According to officials, with current capacity, the country can produce about half a million mini-drones a year. Another NATO country, Montenegro, is quietly but steadily increasing its military capabilities. With a limited military budget, it has purchased reconnaissance drones from Slovenia and is investing in the purchase of additional drones intended for border surveillance. It has also announced that it will produce its own, in cooperation with the United States. In Bosnia and Herzegovina, the modernization of the armed forces is hampered by a limited budget, as well as political divisions. Apart from helicopters donated by the United States, the country has no other aircraft.
Recently, Turkey donated a drone jamming system and promised two Bayraktar drones. Kosovo – although not part of the arms control agreement – has begun acquiring military drones, initially Bayraktars from Turkey.
CAN THIS ISSUE BE FIXED?
Sarajevo-based military analyst Antonio Prlenda believes that unmanned drones should be included either as a new, sixth category or included in the existing classification of combat aircraft. “However, these proposals have been blocked because, at the moment, there is no political will on the part of the signatories to do so,” Prlenda tells Radio Free Europe. In 2015, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Montenegro, Croatia and Serbia took over responsibility for implementing the agreement from the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE), which had been overseeing its implementation until then. “Since then, direct pressure from the international factor on implementation and possible changes has been no longer possible. From then on, it depends only on the political will of the signatories themselves,” Prlenda says.
Any purchase of military equipment in the Region is perceived by people as an arms race, and this concern is exacerbated by statements from leading politicians.
After Croatia signed a contract to buy French Rafale fighter jets to replace Soviet MIGs, it caused a stir in the Region. Serbia responded by buying the same planes. Although all countries are well below the maximum number of soldiers and heavy weapons agreed upon some thirty years ago, the balance of power has changed most with regard to military drones. “The situation with drones is quite complicated, because there are a large number of different categories. Small commercial drones are relatively easy to modify. We can only talk about the larger ones, which can be classified as combat aircraft,” says Aleksandar Radić, a military analyst from Belgrade.
THE SKY WITHOUT LIMITS
The old arms control system in the Region looks more like a relic than a protection, as all countries have introduced new and more modern weapons. Radić points out that at the time the agreement was signed in 1996, Serbia had more than 155 fighter jets. “Serbia today is not even close to that number. Great Britain has about a hundred fighter jets. The very spirit of that agreement is tied to old circumstances, and changing such a document, I think, is unrealistic. We need a new document that would guarantee trust, in accordance with modern circumstances,” Radić tells Radio Free Europe.
NATO and Warsaw Pact countries – from the Atlantic Ocean to the Urals – signed the Conventional Forces in Europe (CFE) Treaty in late 1990, but Russia suspended its participation in the agreement in 2007.
The subRegional agreement, signed by the same countries that were signatories to the Dayton Peace Agreement, which ended the war in Bosnia and Herzegovina in 1995, was based on that Cold War treaty. “It has served its purpose. It was adopted at the most critical time. The states that signed it have never come close to meeting the quotas set. An update is needed not only of this agreement, but also of the Vienna Document, the CFE and the nuclear weapons issues,” Dragan Samardzic, a retired admiral of the Montenegrin Army, tells Radio Free Europe. As for military drones, Samardzic says that no arms control agreement has included them and that, for now, unmanned drones are considered more of a dangerous weapon that could be used by terrorist groups than by states.
In parallel with the procurement of drones, countries in the Region are also working on the procurement of integrated systems for tracking and shooting down drones. Croatia and Serbia have smaller such systems, while, most recently, Turkey donated an anti-drone system to Bosnia and Herzegovina. (RFE)
