Europe is trying to respond effectively, with an unprecedented wave of diplomatic activity: Urgent phone calls between European leaders overnight; Bilateral meetings in London and Paris; NATO defense ministers meeting in Brussels; An emergency EU security summit on Thursday. “This is one of the most decisive moments in European history.”
Over the weekend, the UK Prime Minister, Sir Keir Starmer, hosted what he called a “coalition of the willing.” “In a way, Trump is doing us a favor, if we choose to look at it that way. Otherwise, these are very dark times.” These are the words of a diplomat from a major European country, following Donald Trump’s suspension of US military aid to Ukraine. He asked to remain anonymous in order to express his thoughts more freely. The speed of change in Washington is dizzying, not only for the public but also for politicians.
Europe is trying to respond effectively, with an unprecedented wave of diplomatic activity: Urgent overnight phone calls between European leaders; Bilateral meetings in London and Paris; A meeting of NATO defense ministers in Brussels; An emergency EU security summit on Thursday. “This is one of the most decisive moments in European history.” Most European countries believe that not only Ukraine’s sovereignty but also the security of the entire continent is at stake, as Russia seeks to dismantle the Western balance of power established after the Cold War.
BUT WHAT ARE THESE HIGH-LEVEL MEETINGS ACTUALLY ACHIEVING?
Just hours before Washington cut off military aid to Kiev, UK Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer, who is taking a leading role in Europe on Ukraine, declared that the time had come for “action, not words.” European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen, meanwhile, said Europe must help Ukraine with immediate and additional arms deliveries. But can the continent act as one? Europe is a community of countries with different budgets and diverse domestic policies and priorities.
EUROPE’S TWO OBJECTIVES
- To convince Donald Trump that Europe is taking responsibility for its security. European leaders hope this will convince him to resume military support for Ukraine and maintain security guarantees for Europe.
- Urgently strengthen defense and support for Ukraine, in case Trump withdraws completely from the conflict – or worse, from the defense of Europe as a whole.
But Europe is not doing this just for Washington. Moscow is also watching. If European summits do not produce concrete and rapid results, then in the Kremlin’s eyes, Europe will look weak and divided. Russia has already expressed joy at the “cracks” it sees in Western unity.
EUROPE STILL DEPENDENT ON THE USA
Donald Trump says he trusts Vladimir Putin, but he has been dismissive of NATO allies and has called Ukraine’s president a dictator. Despite European rhetoric about independent defense, every security expert agrees that Europe still needs the United States, at least in the short and medium term. That’s why, last week in Washington, the French president and the British prime minister tried to bring Donald Trump closer. The United States has filled the huge gaps in European defense caused by decades of underinvestment after the Cold War.
If the UK and France manage to create a “coalition of the willing” – European countries agreeing to send peacekeeping troops to Ukraine after a ceasefire – it could expose the weaknesses in NATO’s defenses. That’s why Poland doesn’t want to send troops. It says it needs to keep its soldiers in place to protect itself from Russia and strongly hopes the US won’t withdraw its troops from Eastern Europe.
“CAN EUROPE FILL THE GAP LEFT BY THE USA?”
But Europe also depends on the US for critical military capabilities, known as “enablers.” Ukraine relies heavily on US intelligence to maintain an advantage over Russia. But on Wednesday, the Financial Times reported that the US had stopped sharing intelligence with Kiev, significantly weakening Ukraine’s ability to strike Russian forces. Any European peacekeeping force in Ukraine would need US help to deploy an air shield over Ukraine. Europe does not have sufficient air supply or munitions capacity to neutralize Russian air defenses. These capabilities “cannot be bought at the local supermarket,” as one European politician put it.
IS EUROPE READY TO SPEND MORE?
For Ukraine, Europe could match current US aid, if it makes up its mind to do so. Germany is Ukraine’s biggest military donor after the US. Berlin and northern European countries express dissatisfaction with France, arguing that it talks a lot about Ukraine’s defense but contributes little. Ursula von der Leyen declared that “Europe is entering an era of rearmament,” suggesting mobilizing 800 billion euros for defense. If Trump withdraws completely from Europe, experts say the continent would have to spend between 4-6% of GDP on defense – a political, social and economic “earthquake” that European leaders hope never to encounter. (BBC)
