A former Stasi agent close to Putin is suspected of working to reactivate the pipeline with the support of American investors, thus giving the United States influence over Europe’s energy supplies.
A possible peace between Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin, which so far excludes Ukraine and Europe, seems closely linked to the 1.220-kilometer Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline. This pipeline, which has never been put into operation, could begin transporting up to 55 billion cubic meters of gas per year from Russia to Germany.
It is a gigantic deal, where, according to reports, Matthias Warnig, a former agent of the East German secret service (Stasi), an influential banker and a close friend of Putin, since the latter’s time as a KGB officer in Dresden, is working behind the scenes. Warnig, until 2023, was the CEO of Nord Stream 2 AG, the company responsible for the pipeline, headquartered in Switzerland and fully controlled by Russia’s Gazprom.
POSSIBLE AGREEMENT
After a framework agreement for the construction of Nord Stream 2 was signed in 2015, work was halted after four years due to US sanctions. It resumed in 2020, and in June 2021, Putin announced the completion of the first pipeline. Three months later, the second pipeline was also completed. However, a bureaucratic suspension by Germany (which may not have been accidental) became permanent after the Russian invasion of Ukraine in February 2022 and the annexation of Donbas.
This led to the pipeline’s activation being permanently halted. Another key moment was the total disruption of Russian supplies through Nord Stream 1, due to a technical defect claimed by Moscow. In September 2022, the Nord Stream 1 pipeline and one of the Nord Stream 2 lines were severely damaged by mysterious sabotage in the Baltic Sea, causing a complete halt to the transport of Russian gas to Europe.
RECENT MOVEMENTS OF THE USA AND RUSSIA
According to an investigation by the Financial Times, Warnig is suspected of contacting American investors as part of parallel economic diplomacy aimed at facilitating a deal between Trump and Putin. If sanctions against Moscow are lifted, a consortium of American investors, separate from the one set up last year by American businessman Stephen Lynch (who had previously tried to broker a deal with Moscow), is poised to take control of part of the pipeline.
In these secret negotiations between the US and Russia, the US would secure a key role in regulating gas supplies to Europe, as the Nord Stream pipeline would become operational again. In return, Russia would resume billions in profits from exporting gas to Europe. Despite the potential benefits, there are still many obstacles to reopening the pipeline. European companies such as Shell, Omv, Uniper, Engie and Wintershall have invested billions of dollars in the project, but then wiped them off their balance sheets after sanctions against Russia.
The German government still has the final say on permits and authorizations, and has shown reluctance in this regard. Sanctions imposed by the US and EU remain in force against Russia, making it difficult to implement the agreement.
PRESSURE FROM GERMAN BUSINESSES AND EUROPE’S POSITION
According to Bloomberg, major German companies are lobbying for the resumption of gas supplies from Russia, hoping that a Trump-Putin deal could lead to a return of cheap Russian gas to the European market. Christoph Günther, director of one of Germany’s largest chemical industrial parks, has declared that “the only way to revive the industry is to secure cheap Russian gas.” At the same time, the European Union is trying to diversify energy supplies and reduce dependence on Moscow.
Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov has denied any possible agreement, but Warnig himself, the former Stasi agent, has not commented on the news linking him to negotiations with the US.
To make this potential deal a reality, it would require not only an agreement between Trump and Putin, but also the approval of Germany and Europe. While the US could gain greater influence in the European energy market, Europe faces a major strategic dilemma: Support a return of Russian gas to save the industry, or stand firm against sanctions against Moscow. If this deal becomes a reality, it could fundamentally change the energy and geopolitical balance of Europe and the US in the coming years.
