The G7 and Washington are demanding that Turkish President Erdogan stop importing Russian oil and gas. But Turkey is heavily dependent on energy supplies – and currently benefits from price advantages.
It was a scene that drew a lot of attention in the Oval Office where US President Donald Trump and Turkish President Erdogan sat in September. Trump praised his Turkish counterpart, Recep Tayyip Erdogan, in front of reporters: “We have a good relationship. He’s doing a very good job in his country. He’s a very respected man. Everybody respects him. I respect him too.” But amidst the praise came a demand that represents a major economic and geopolitical challenge for Ankara: Trump demanded that Erdogan stop buying oil and gas from Russia.
The G7 countries have also increased the pressure. After a virtual meeting on Wednesday, the seven major Western industrialized countries – Germany, the UK, Canada, France, Italy, Japan and the US – jointly declared that it was time to “maximize the pressure on Russia’s oil exports”. The move is intended to reduce the revenue Moscow needs for the war. So far, Turkey has not reacted to Donald Trump’s statements or the G7’s demand. Its energy dependence is the country’s most sensitive point in the Bosphorus. Turkey is extremely dependent on Russia for its energy supplies.
FACTS AND FIGURES ON TURKISH DEPENDENCE
According to data from the Turkish Energy Markets Regulatory Authority (EPDK), 66 percent of Turkey’s oil imports and products came from Russia last year. According to leading energy expert Necdet Pamir, the figure was more than 68 percent a year earlier than 2024, while by the end of 2022, it was 41 percent.
The high import figures are a direct consequence of Russia’s war of aggression against Ukraine: Turkey is taking advantage of the fact that Russia is under pressure due to EU sanctions and is temporarily offering its oil at up to 15 percent below international market prices. An import ban would not only jeopardize Turkey’s security of supply, but would also eliminate this clear price advantage. Ankara also received 41 percent of its natural gas imports from Russia in 2024. Russian gas is delivered to Turkey mainly via the Blue Stream (Mavi Akim) and Turk Stream (Türk Akim) pipelines.
MOSCOW’S REFUSAL AND TURKEY’S STRATEGY
Immediately after Trump’s meeting with Erdogan, the Kremlin announced through spokesman Dmitry Peskov that gas pipelines to Turkey were continuing to operate at “full capacity.” There would be no interruptions as long as the gas flow was “beneficial” to Turkey. Peskov also clarified Moscow’s position: “Turkey is a sovereign state that makes its own decisions regarding cooperation with us.”
Experts do not expect Turkey to stop importing energy from Russia in the coming years. Instead, Ankara is pursuing a quiet strategy: diversification. State-owned company BOTAS signed two long-term contracts during Erdogan’s recent visit to the United States to expand its natural gas supplies: an agreement with the American company Mercuria to supply a total of 70 billion cubic meters of liquefied natural gas (LNG) for 20 years starting in 2026; In addition, a preliminary agreement was announced with Woodside Energy for 5.8 billion cubic meters of LNG.
Kadri Tastan, a Turkey expert at the US-based German Marshall Fund, notes that the Turkish government has indeed made great efforts in recent years to diversify sources and ensure its energy security. At the same time, it is also promoting domestic energy and, in particular, renewable energy. According to him, the new agreements with the US also contain a strategic aspect in addition to diversification. Political relations with the US have been tense in recent years, Tastan recalls. In addition to the United States, Turkey has also signed contracts for liquefied natural gas with Egypt, Algeria, Qatar and Nigeria in recent years.
ANKARA: DEPENDENT ON MOSCOW FOR NUCLEAR ENERGY AND LIGNITE
Turkey is also heavily dependent on Russia for other energy sources. In 2022, the country covered 43 percent of its lignite needs from Russian imports. In addition, the first nuclear power plant, Akkuyu, is being built in southern Turkey by the Russian state company Rosatom. The commissioning of the nuclear power plant has been repeatedly postponed, as its completion is being delayed by sanctions against Russia. According to Turkish Energy Minister Alparslan Bayraktar, it is scheduled to start next year. But it is unlikely that the plant will be fully completed until 2028.
Thus, Turkey is likely to continue the complex balancing act regarding its energy supply in the future: situated between the West, which seeks sanctions against Moscow, and Russia, its most important energy supplier at the moment. Trump follows a new course regarding the Ukraine war. (DW)
